Macerich (MAC)
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$23.24+0.78%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MAC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 16.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MAC — capital allocation — The Notes were issued to the initial purchasers in reliance upon Section 4(a)…
Dated 2026-08-11
The Notes were issued to the initial purchasers in reliance upon Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act in transactions not involving any public offering. The Notes were resold by the initial purchasers to persons whom the initial purchasers reasonably believe are “qualified institutional buyers,” as defined in, and in accordance with, Rule 144A under the Securities Act. Any shares of the Company’s common stock that may be issued upon exchange of the Notes will be issued in reliance upon Secti…
Why it matters: Higher occupancy rates mean more demand for retail space. This could increase revenue.
Supportive ifLeased portfolio occupancy hits 95% or more by mid-2026.
Worry ifLeased portfolio occupancy will stay under 94% by mid-2026.
Why it matters: Finishing these replacements could bring more traffic and sales. This helps overall performance.
Supportive ifAll 30 anchors will be open or under construction by December 2026.
Worry ifFewer than 30 anchors are completed by year-end, indicating delays in the plan.
Why it matters: Less net income loss shows better financial health and efficiency.
Supportive ifNet income loss decreases from $36.4 million in Q1 2026 to less than $30 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet income loss increases or stays above $36.4 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Successful integration shows how well the company can add value from acquisitions. This helps growth.
Supportive ifAnnapolis Mall's NOI shows a clear path to growth within 6 months post-acquisition.
Worry ifAnnapolis Mall's NOI does not show growth or faces integration issues within 6 months.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$97 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $308 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,301 loss on $10,000 · 13.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Faster revenue growth means stronger demand. It shows management is doing a better job.
Supportive ifRevenue growth turns positive year over year, exceeding $261.70M.
Worry ifRevenue continues to decline year over year, staying below $241.54M.
Why it matters: A drop in Funds from Operations shows profit issues. This can hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifFFO was below $90 million. This is down from $92.4 million in Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifFFO remains above $90 million in Q2, suggesting stability in cash flow.
Why it matters: More new stores can drive higher foot traffic and sales, supporting revenue growth.
Supportive ifNew store openings exceed 100 by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNew store openings fall below 80 by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: More revenue from signed but not open leases shows a good leasing strategy. This means growth.
Supportive ifSNO pipeline revenue reported above $116 million by Q3 2026.
Worry ifSNO pipeline revenue reported below $107 million by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A big drop in revenue shows problems in retail and execution issues.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $217.5 million, which is a 10% decline from Q2 2025.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue stabilizes or grows year over year, exceeding $217.5 million.
Why it matters: A drop in occupancy may mean less demand for retail space and affect cash flows.
Worry ifLeased portfolio occupancy is below 93%. This is down from 93.4%.
Less concerning ifLeased portfolio occupancy is above 93%. This shows demand is stable.
Why it matters: More leasing means strong demand. This can lead to more money for Macerich.
Supportive ifNew store leases projected to generate over $124 million in gross revenue in Q3.
Worry ifNew store leases projected to generate less than $100 million in gross revenue in Q3.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps the company meet its financial goals and stay healthy.
Supportive ifCash from operations is over $30 million in Q2.
Worry ifCash from operations is below $20 million in Q2.
Why it matters: The success of this offering can strengthen the balance sheet and fund future growth.
Watch forThe offering is fully subscribed and raises $600 million or more.
Also watch forThe offering does not attract enough interest. It raises less than $500 million.
Why it matters: This revenue from new store leases shows growth in leasing activity. It signals strong demand for retail space.
Supportive ifNew store leases bring in over $124 million in gross revenue for Macerich.
Worry ifNew store leases generate less than $116 million in gross revenue.
Why it matters: Higher NOI growth shows good management and success with the Path Forward Plan.
Supportive ifGo-Forward Portfolio NOI growth exceeds 3.8% compared to the same quarter last year.
Worry ifGo-Forward Portfolio NOI growth is below 1.2% compared to the same quarter last year.
Why it matters: Bringing in tenants like Dick's House of Sport shows good property management and growth.
Supportive ifDick's House of Sport opens as planned and attracts significant customer traffic.
Worry ifOpening is delayed or does not bring in expected customer traffic.