Macerich (MAC)
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$25.90+4.69%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MAC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 51.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 46.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers
MAC — capital allocation — The Notes were issued to the initial purchasers in reliance upon Section 4(a)…
Dated 2026-08-11
The Notes were issued to the initial purchasers in reliance upon Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act in transactions not involving any public offering. The Notes were resold by the initial purchasers to persons whom the initial purchasers reasonably believe are “qualified institutional buyers,” as defined in, and in accordance with, Rule 144A under the Securities Act. Any shares of the Company’s common stock that may be issued upon exchange of the Notes will be issued in reliance upon Secti…
Why it matters: Sales per square foot reached $919 in Q2. Higher sales can support tenant demand and future rent growth.
Supportive ifTwelve-month tenant sales per square foot for spaces under 10,000 square feet rise above $919.
Worry ifThe same sales measure falls below $919.
Why it matters: The notes can fund debt refinancing, but exchange terms and any share settlement can affect debt and share counts.
Watch forFinal filings show the proceeds refinance secured debt. No notes are exchanged for common shares.
Also watch forFinal filings show proceeds mainly fund other needs, or notes are exchanged for common shares.
Why it matters: NOI grew 3.8% in Q2. Growth above that level would show the plan is gaining speed.
Supportive ifQ3 Go-Forward NOI, excluding lease termination income, grows more than 3.8% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 Go-Forward NOI growth is 3.8% or lower year over year.
Why it matters: Higher occupancy can add rent and support center sales. Q2 occupancy rose to 94.0% from 92.0% a year earlier.
Supportive ifAt quarter-end, more than 94.0% of the portfolio is leased.
Worry ifAt quarter-end, less than 94.0% of the portfolio is leased.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$82 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $291 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,633 loss on $10,000 · 16.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Signed leases do not add rent until stores open. More rent from open stores would back the growth plan.
Supportive ifMacerich says open stores add rent from the $124 million new-store pipeline, and the pipeline grows.
Worry ifThe pipeline falls below $124 million, or store openings do not add rent in later results.