Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$1.06 → $1.06 · observed estimates
Matthews International Corporation (MATW)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$20.32+3.41%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.06 → 1.06 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MATW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash flow from operating activities improves | Matthews International aims to improve operating income and cash flow. | Broken | Cash flow remains negative through FY26 | Cash from operations: $-2.117M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Cash flow from operations turns positive by FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 2026-2,117,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$1.06 → $1.06 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an execution-dependent, acquisition-and-efficiency story rather than a steady compounder. The multi-year view is still intact but on watch: key initiatives are progressing, while earnings quality is fragile, management execution is volatile, and risk is elevated.
Valuation is expensive versus peers, and its valuation measure has risen recently. The evidence points to a stretched setup with a modest positive expectations gap, but low priced-in fragility means the full combination of weak execution, expensive valuation, and turbulence is not reflected in that measure.
Near term, uneven earnings and a recent quarterly miss leave an elevated risk of another miss; guidance was lowered as of August 7. Over the multi-year view, Memorialization sales and adjusted EBITDA have grown modestly, and the Propelis contribution has edged up as management works toward its synergy target. Restructuring may support efficiency over time, though its costs have weighed on near-term results.
A next-quarter guidance increase after the recent reduction would signal a meaningful recovery in execution; continued weakness would reinforce concerns about fragile earnings. Sector conditions also matter: continued strength from GHC could sustain a supportive Consumer Discretionary backdrop, while weaker results or guidance from GHC could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on turning modest segment progress and gradual synergy gains into steadier execution, while managing elevated near-term earnings risk. Expensive valuation leaves limited room for execution to disappoint, and the evidence supports a watch state rather than a confirmed break in the long-term thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company maintains steady dividends at $0.255 per share. |
| Intact |
| Dividend per share cut below $0.255 per quarter |
Dividend per share: $0.26 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share maintained at ~$0.255 per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 20260.255 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves from negative levels | Matthews International aims to improve operating income and cash flow. | Broken | Operating income remains negative through FY26 | Operating income: $-13.221M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income improves to positive territory by FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 2026-13,221,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue decline slows and stabilizes | A primary condition in Matthews International Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue decline slows to no worse than -10% YoY. | Broken | Revenue decline exceeds -10% YoY in FY27 | Revenue growth: -29.58% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Revenue decline slows to no worse than -10% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 2026-29.584374 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.04B → $1.04B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.06 | $1,042,160,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 19, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.