Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
MediaAlpha, Inc. (MAX)
NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.45-3.99%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.17 → 1.22 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MAX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA grows at least 19% year over year in Q2 2026 | Profit margins and EBITDA are also expected to grow 19% year over year. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA growth falls below 15% YoY in Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MAX is a growth-oriented business with improving recent performance, rather than a proven steady compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, but confidence is medium and risk is elevated.
The valuation evidence describes MAX as cheap versus peers, while also showing a negative expectations gap, meaning market expectations appear cautious. The model confidence is low, so the valuation signal is uncertain; no fragility gates were triggered.
Near-term results show strong momentum: third-quarter 2026 revenue grew 22.7% year over year, and operating income was higher than in the same quarter a year earlier. Revenue growth supports management’s customer-acquisition priority, while progress on repurchases and operating profitability is mixed. Near-term risk includes erratic earnings surprises and recent peer misses, though the stated miss-risk watch tier is quiet.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, especially if estimates are then reduced. Fed rate cuts or continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop. The multi-year view also depends on continued revenue growth and better evidence of operating leverage.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MAX’s thesis rests on sustaining strong growth and improving profitability despite elevated risk and a sector headwind. The valuation appears cheap versus peers, but the evidence is uncertain and confidence is medium. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins and EBITDA are also expected to grow 19% year over year. |
| Intact |
| YoY revenue growth falls below 11.7% in Q2 2026 |
Revenue growth: 22.65% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=19% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 28, 202622.652146 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Share repurchase program expands to $100 million | The company expanded its buyback program to $100 million. | Intact | Buyback program is reduced or canceled before end of 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.55 → $1.22 · observed estimates
$1.38B → $1.52B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.55 | $1,381,004,000 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.55 | $1,381,003,830 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.55 | $1,381,003,830 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.25 | $1,378,549,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.55 | $1,381,003,830 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.55 | $1,381,003,830 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.55 | $1,381,003,830 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.55 | $1,390,726,140 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.21 | $1,410,148,889 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.55 | $1,390,726,140 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.55 | $1,390,726,140 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.55 | $1,390,726,140 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.55 | $1,390,726,140 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.55 | $1,390,726,140 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.21 | $1,410,148,889 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.55 | $1,405,811,860 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.21 | $1,410,148,889 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.55 | $1,405,811,860 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.21 | $1,410,148,889 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.21 | $1,410,148,889 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.21 | $1,410,148,889 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.21 | $1,410,148,889 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.21 | $1,410,148,889 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.21 | $1,410,148,889 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.21 | $1,410,148,889 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.21 | $1,410,148,889 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.17 | $1,423,933,300 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.17 | $1,423,933,300 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.17 | $1,423,933,300 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.17 | $1,423,933,300 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.17 | $1,423,933,300 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.18 | $1,425,526,621 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.17 | $1,425,871,065 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.17 | $1,425,871,065 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.17 | $1,425,871,065 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.17 | $1,425,871,065 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.17 | $1,425,871,065 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.17 | $1,425,871,065 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.17 | $1,425,871,065 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.17 | $1,425,871,110 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.17 | $1,425,871,110 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.17 | $1,425,871,110 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.17 | $1,425,871,110 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.17 | $1,425,871,110 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.17 | $1,425,871,110 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.17 | $1,425,871,110 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.17 | $1,425,871,110 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.17 | $1,425,871,110 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.17 | $1,425,871,110 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.17 | $1,425,871,110 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.17 | $1,425,871,110 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.17 | $1,425,871,110 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.17 | $1,425,871,110 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.17 | $1,425,318,777 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.17 | $1,425,318,777 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.17 | $1,425,318,777 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.17 | $1,425,318,777 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.17 | $1,425,318,777 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.17 | $1,425,318,777 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.17 | $1,425,318,777 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.17 | $1,425,318,777 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.17 | $1,425,318,777 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.17 | $1,425,318,777 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.17 | $1,425,318,777 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.17 | $1,425,318,777 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.17 | $1,425,318,777 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.17 | $1,425,318,777 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.19 | $1,442,866,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.20 | $1,502,700,822 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.20 | $1,502,700,822 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.20 | $1,502,700,822 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.20 | $1,502,700,822 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.20 | $1,502,700,822 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.22 | $1,517,453,478 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.