MediaAlpha, Inc. (MAX)
NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.05-1.39%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MAX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -60.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 72.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MAX — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-29
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. MediaAlpha, Inc. (the “Company”) previously disclosed that it is a party to a Tax Receivables Agreement dated October 27, 2020 (as amended, the “TRA”), pursuant to which, among other things, the Company will pay the counterparties to the TRA 85% of the cash savings, if any, in U.S. federal, state and local income tax that the Company realizes (or in some cases is deemed to realize) as a result of increases in the tax basis of the assets of QL Holdin…
Why it matters: This shows the company is making money and managing costs well.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is at or above $32 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is less than $32 million.
Why it matters: Keeping positive net income shows the company is still making money and doing well.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 net income reported above $14 million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 net income reported as a loss.
Why it matters: A lower adjusted EBITDA shows it is hard to keep making money while growing.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is $32 million or less. This shows profit pressure.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is over $35 million. This shows profit is better than expected.
Why it matters: Better performance may mean a recovery in the Communication Services sector. This would help MAX.
Supportive ifSector performance improves compared to peers like GOOG and META.
Worry ifSector performance continues to lag behind peers.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$190 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $488 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,770 loss on $10,000 · 47.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Hitting the lower end of guidance would signal weaker growth momentum in a key vertical.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is $330 million or less. This shows slower growth than expected.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is over $355 million. This shows stronger growth than expected.
Why it matters: Growing the share buyback plan shows faith in the company's worth. It affects how money is spent.
Watch forAnnouncement of an expansion to the share repurchase program to $100M.
Also watch forNo announcement or a reduction in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: A drop in net income could mean financial trouble after a good trend.
Worry ifNet income in Q3 is below $41.8 million. This shows possible issues.
Less concerning ifNet income in Q3 is above $41.8 million. This shows continued financial health.
Why it matters: Exceeding this revenue target would confirm strong growth momentum in the business.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue reported above $355 million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue reported below $330 million.
Why it matters: Having positive net income is key. It builds investor trust and shows success.
Supportive ifNet income is positive in Q3. This confirms ongoing profitability.
Worry ifNet income is negative in Q3. This raises worries about stability.
Why it matters: Finishing this program shows good use of money. It also shows trust in future cash.
Supportive ifThe company says it has finished the $100 million share buyback program.
Worry ifCompany fails to complete the share repurchase program by year-end.