MediaAlpha, Inc. (MAX)
NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$15.05-0.66%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MAX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -42.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 57.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MAX — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-29
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. MediaAlpha, Inc. (the “Company”) previously disclosed that it is a party to a Tax Receivables Agreement dated October 27, 2020 (as amended, the “TRA”), pursuant to which, among other things, the Company will pay the counterparties to the TRA 85% of the cash savings, if any, in U.S. federal, state and local income tax that the Company realizes (or in some cases is deemed to realize) as a result of increases in the tax basis of the assets of QL Holdin…
Why it matters: Q4 adjusted EBITDA tests whether higher sales also bring stronger earnings. Management's range is $36 million to $39 million.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted EBITDA is below $36 million, below the low end of guidance.
Less concerning ifQ4 adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $39 million, the top of guidance, with year-over-year growth of 22% or more.
Why it matters: Management guides to $355 million to $375 million in Q4 revenue. Results above the midpoint would extend recent growth.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue is above $365 million, the midpoint of guidance, and year-over-year growth tops 25%.
Worry ifQ4 revenue is below $355 million, the low end of guidance, or year-over-year growth falls below 20%.
Why it matters: Sinanyan became CFO on October 1 and previously held the role. Q4 results will show whether the handoff keeps reporting and guidance steady.
Watch forThe next earnings release follows its stated schedule for reports and guidance. It reports no finance-team disruption.
Also watch forThe company reports a delay, restatement, or change to guidance tied to the CFO handoff.
Why it matters: Management links Q4 Health revenue to annual enrollment season. A much smaller share could weaken the quarter's planned seasonal lift.
Watch forThe Q4 release says Health insurance is about 4% of revenue. This is near management's stated level.
Also watch forThe Q4 release says Health insurance is below 2% of revenue. This is well below management's stated level.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$176 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $539 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,770 loss on $10,000 · 47.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.