MBIA, Inc. (MBI)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.77-0.21%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Reduce net losses to at least -$40M by 2026-Q1: metric not reported.
MBIA is improving its operating income and reducing net losses, from -$62M to -$41M in operating income and from -$62M to -$40M in net income since 2025-Q1. Revenue has grown from $14M to $24M over the same period, showing progress. Management is focused on these improvements as key priorities. Cash flow remains a challenge but is being addressed.
MBIA remains loss-making with negative EPS expected through 2027. Cash from operations has declined sharply, from positive $90M in 2025-Q3 to negative $33M in 2026-Q1. Revenue growth is volatile and may not sustain. The company risks continued losses and weak cash flow.
The market prices in about 4% revenue growth and a cautious outlook with the stock trading roughly 7% below our valuation reference. Our view aligns with this cautious stance given ongoing losses and cash flow challenges.
Breaks if: cash flow from operations falls below -$33M beyond 2026-Q1
Management prioritizes improving cash flow from operations to support financial stability.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Cash from operations fluctuated significantly, from positive $90 million in 2025-Q3 to negative $4 million in 2026-Q2, indicating challenges in managing cash flow. The trajectory shows limited progress and volatility in cash flow management.
“Cash from operating activities was negative $4 million”
“Cash from operating activities was negative $33 million”
“Cash from operating activities was negative $10 million”
“Cash from operating activities was positive $90 million”
“Cash from operating activities was positive $1 million”
“Cash from operating activities was negative $43 million”
Breaks if: net income remains below -$40M beyond 2026-Q1
Focus on improving operating income and reducing net losses as a continuing operational priority.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Operating income improved from negative $62 million in 2025-Q1 to negative $43 million in 2026-Q2, and net income improved from negative $62 million to negative $43 million over the same period. The trajectory shows limited progress but some improvement in reducing losses.
“Operating income was negative $43 million, net income negative $43 million”
“Operating income negative $41 million, net income negative $40 million”
“Operating income negative $56 million, net income negative $51 million”
“Operating income negative $7 million, net income negative $8 million”
“Operating income negative $56 million, net income negative $56 million”
“Operating income negative $62 million, net income negative $62 million”
Breaks if: operating income remains below -$41M beyond 2026-Q1
Focus on improving operating income and reducing net losses as a continuing operational priority.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Operating income improved from negative $62 million in 2025-Q1 to negative $43 million in 2026-Q2, and net income improved from negative $62 million to negative $43 million over the same period. The trajectory shows limited progress but some improvement in reducing losses.
“Operating income was negative $43 million, net income negative $43 million”
“Operating income negative $41 million, net income negative $40 million”
“Operating income negative $56 million, net income negative $51 million”
“Operating income negative $7 million, net income negative $8 million”
“Operating income negative $56 million, net income negative $56 million”
“Operating income negative $62 million, net income negative $62 million”
Breaks if: revenue falls below $24M beyond 2026-Q1
Management aims to increase revenue growth as a key operational priority.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue increased from $14 million in 2025-Q1 to $27 million in 2026-Q2, showing a positive growth trajectory. Management's focus on revenue growth is reflected in this upward trend.
“Revenue was $27 million this quarter”
“Revenue was $24 million this quarter”
“Revenue was $28 million this quarter”
“Revenue was $15 million this quarter”
“Revenue was $23 million this quarter”
“Revenue was $14 million this quarter”
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround situation, as MBI is currently loss-making but has shown some improvement in revenue growth. The current thesis state indicates a cautious watch due to weak financial performance and elevated risks.
The market seems to price MBI as undervalued compared to its peers, suggesting an expectations gap. However, the recent valuation increase indicates that some investors may be optimistic about future recovery despite the ongoing losses.
Management has prioritized improving operating income and managing cash flow, but progress has been limited. Revenue growth is on track, yet the elevated risk of missing earnings in the near term remains a concern.
The future performance of MBI hinges on sector trends, particularly the results from major players like FNF, FAF, and ACT. A favorable or unfavorable shift in their earnings could significantly impact MBI's trajectory.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MBI's outlook will depend on its ability to improve financial performance amid sector dynamics. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.