Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
MBIA, Inc. (MBI)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.46-1.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MBI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Stabilize cash flow from operations above negative $33M by 2026-Q1 | Cash flow remains a challenge but is being addressed. | Broken | cash flow from operations falls below -$33M beyond 2026-Q1 | Cash from operations: $-4M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: > -33000000 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026-4,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk recovery thesis, not a durable compounder today. Management is stable, but the business is still loss-making and recent performance is weak, so the long-term thesis depends on better execution.
The valuation evidence is mixed: MBI is described as cheap versus peers, while the peer comparison also shows a premium. The expectations gap is negative, and the priced-in tag is justified; valuation has risen recently, but the evidence does not show that market expectations are unusually fragile.
Near term, repeated earnings misses and an elevated chance of another miss point to continued execution risk. Revenue rose from 2025-Q1 to 2026-Q2, but losses improved only modestly and operating cash flow remained volatile, leaving two of management’s three stated priorities behind.
The multi-year thesis hinges on whether revenue growth can translate into smaller losses and steadier cash generation. Near term, a guidance cut would add pressure, while continued strength among financial-sector peers could support sector momentum; the effect of interest-rate changes is another stated risk.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MBI remains a watch-stage recovery story with some revenue progress but weak financial performance and elevated near-term risk. The thesis needs clearer progress on reducing losses and managing cash flow. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Cash from operations fluctuated significantly, from positive $90 million in 2025-Q3 to negative $4 million in 2026-Q2, indicating challenges in managing cash flow. The trajectory shows limited progress and volatility in cash flow management.
Reduce net losses to at least -$40M by 2026-Q1 | MBIA is improving its operating income and reducing net losses, from -$62M to -$41M in operating income and from -$62M to -$40M in net income since 2025-Q1. | Under Pressure | net income remains below -$40M beyond 2026-Q1 | Net income: $-23M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= -40000000 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 2026-23,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Operating income improved from negative $62 million in 2025-Q1 to negative $43 million in 2026-Q2, and net income improved from negative $62 million to negative $43 million over the same period. The trajectory shows limited progress but some improvement in reducing losses. Delivery assessment Oct 31, 2026 |
Improve operating income to at least -$41M by 2026-Q1 | MBIA is improving its operating income and reducing net losses, from -$62M to -$41M in operating income and from -$62M to -$40M in net income since 2025-Q1. | Under Pressure | operating income remains below -$41M beyond 2026-Q1 | Operating income: $-43M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= -41000000 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026-43,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Operating income improved from negative $62 million in 2025-Q1 to negative $43 million in 2026-Q2, and net income improved from negative $62 million to negative $43 million over the same period. The trajectory shows limited progress but some improvement in reducing losses. Delivery assessment Oct 31, 2026 |
Grow revenue to at least $24M by 2026-Q1 | A primary condition in MBIA, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 24000000 USD. | Under Pressure | revenue falls below $24M beyond 2026-Q1 | Revenue: $26M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= 24000000 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 202626,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue increased from $14 million in 2025-Q1 to $27 million in 2026-Q2, showing a positive growth trajectory. Management's focus on revenue growth is reflected in this upward trend. Delivery assessment Oct 31, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.38 → $-0.38 · observed estimates
$0.02B → $0.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.38 | $18,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.44 | $95,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.44 | $95,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.38 | $18,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.44 | $95,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.38 | $18,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.44 | $95,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.44 | $95,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.38 | $18,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.44 | $95,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.38 | $18,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.38 | $18,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.38 | $18,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.38 | $18,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.38 | $18,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.44 | $95,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.38 | $18,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.38 | $18,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.38 | $18,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.38 | $18,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.38 | $18,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.38 | $18,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.38 | $18,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.38 | $18,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.38 | $18,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.38 | $18,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.38 | $18,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.