MBIA, Inc. (MBI)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.46-1.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MBI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -75.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 49.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers
MBI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition of Form 8-K. On August 6, 2026, MBIA Inc. (“MBIA”) issued a press release announcing that the Registrant’s results of operations for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 were available via a financial results report on the Registrant’s website at https://investor.mbia.com/investor-relations/financial-information/default.aspx . A copy of the financial results report is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated with reference to
Why it matters: Cash from operations fell to negative $4 million in Q2. More negative cash flow would add to the cash management concern.
Worry ifQ3 cash from operations is below $0.
Less concerning ifQ3 cash from operations is $0 or higher.
Why it matters: MBIA lost $43 million in Q2. A smaller loss would show progress on its top stated priority.
Supportive ifQ3 net loss is less than $43 million.
Worry ifQ3 net loss is $43 million or more.
Why it matters: MBIA reported an earnings miss for Q2. The November report can show whether results improved or weakened.
Watch forThe November 4 report shows a smaller net loss than Q2's $43 million.
Also watch forThe November 4 report shows a net loss greater than $43 million.
Why it matters: Revenue rose to $27 million in Q2. Another increase would support the stated revenue growth priority.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is above $27 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is $27 million or less.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$127 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $399 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,482 loss on $10,000 · 44.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.