MBIA, Inc. (MBI)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.77-0.21%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MBI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -70.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 52.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MBI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition of Form 8-K. On August 6, 2026, MBIA Inc. (“MBIA”) issued a press release announcing that the Registrant’s results of operations for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 were available via a financial results report on the Registrant’s website at https://investor.mbia.com/investor-relations/financial-information/default.aspx . A copy of the financial results report is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated with reference to
Why it matters: The earnings report will clarify the company's financial health. A miss would raise concerns.
Watch forNext earnings report shows results better than the previous quarter's miss.
Also watch forNext earnings report confirms another earnings miss.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could impact MBIA's performance and outlook.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median in the next quarterly report.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above its median. This shows it is still strong.
Why it matters: Reducing net losses shows MBIA is moving toward profitability. It is a key measure of success.
Supportive ifNet losses for Q2 2026 drop to less than -$30M.
Worry ifNet losses for Q2 2026 remain worse than -$40M.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key indicator of MBIA's performance. A drop could signal trouble.
Worry ifRevenue growth for Q2 2026 exceeds 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth for Q2 2026 drops below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Better operating income helps reduce losses. It shows how well management is doing.
Supportive ifOperating income gets less negative than -30 million in the next earnings report.
Worry ifOperating income gets worse or stays more negative than -43 million.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows that MBIA is doing well with its growth plan.
Supportive ifRevenue growth exceeds 30% year over year in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifRevenue growth is below 20% each year. This shows possible problems.
Why it matters: Another earnings miss would show the company is still struggling. This may hurt investor feelings.
Worry ifThe earnings report shows another miss. This is similar to the announcement on August 6.
Less concerning ifEarnings report beats expectations in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is key for MBIA to show it is reducing losses. Investors will look for signs of progress.
Supportive ifOperating income is less negative than -43 million in Q3.
Worry ifOperating income worsens or stays worse than -43 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for MBIA's recovery. A strong Q3 would confirm the positive trend.
Supportive ifRevenue exceeds 30 million in Q3.
Worry ifRevenue stays below 30 million in Q3.
Why it matters: An earnings miss would indicate ongoing struggles. It could affect investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 results show a larger earnings miss than previous quarters.
Less concerning ifQ3 results show an earnings beat or meet expectations.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow is vital for MBIA's financial health. Fluctuations raise concerns about management.
Watch forCash flow from operations turns positive in Q3.
Also watch forCash flow from operations remains negative in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$158 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $413 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,089 loss on $10,000 · 40.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.