McDonald's (MCD)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$282.24+0.98%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $282.24. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $282 MCD trades at 23× p/e, in line with its 20× p/e peer median, and our $291 fair value agrees. We hold it with medium confidence: quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $305–$350. Note: our $291 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($305–$350). Not investment advice.
$305.00 – $350.00 (median $320.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-29
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $11213451.82/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $320.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $158.13 | 20.1 | 7.88 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $248.03 | 20.1 | 12.36 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $498.27 | 40.3 | 12.36 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $299.13 | 24.2 | 12.36 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $254.03 | 20.1 | 12.66 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $210.02 | 20.1 | 10.47 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $253.76 | 20.1 | 12.65 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.