Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
McDonald's (MCD)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$278.04-0.78%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
13.85 → 13.74 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 20 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 21 to 20; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MCD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capex near $3.75 billion to support growth and automation | The company invests $3.7 billion in 2026 to support growth. | Intact | Capex falls below $3.0B in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $834M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.75B capex. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 2026834,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MCD is a large, established restaurant business with a multi-year view built on ongoing sales growth and high operating margins. The thesis is intact, and recent business quality improved, but growth has slowed from earlier levels.
MCD trades at a premium to peers, and the valuation assessment is that this premium is justified. The evidence points to a modest expectations gap and low fragility, rather than a market setup dependent on unusually strong execution.
Near term, sales growth may remain positive but moderated: global comparable sales growth eased from 3.8% to 1.3%, while systemwide sales growth slowed from 8% to 5%. Operating margin was about 47% in 2026-Q2, in line with management’s stated range, and planned 2026 capital spending has increased; a guidance cut is a notable risk despite the assessed low near-term miss risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued sales growth and management maintaining margins while carrying out its higher investment plans. MCD guidance is a key swing factor, and results and guidance from SBUX, YUM, and CMG may signal whether the sector backdrop is strengthening or weakening.
For the next 1 to 3 years, MCD’s thesis remains intact, with stable execution and high margins balanced by decelerating sales growth and uncertainty around the next guidance update. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| New menu items and automation help sales and cost control. |
| Intact |
| New menu and automation fail to improve sales or margins |
Q3 comp sales beat expectations; margin mid-to-high 40% Q3 earnings beat with comparable sales growth and margin resilience; new value program and capex plan announced. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain operating margin in mid-to-high 40% range | It aims to keep profit margins in the mid-to-high 40% range. | Intact | Operating margin falls below 40% in FY25 | Operating margin: 47.02% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=40% operating margin. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 202647.020707 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “"And it’s our commitment to going three-for-three that sets McDonald’s apart.” ““McDonald's value leadership is working,” said Chairman and CEO Chris Kempczinski.” Operating income was $3.338 billion in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 2, 2026 |
Sustain revenue growth near 7% or higher | A primary condition in McDonald's's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year | Revenue growth: 3.74% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 7, 20263.741049 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$14.15 → $13.74 · observed estimates
$30.03B → $28.89B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $14.15 | $30,031,697,790 | 33 / 33 |
| 2026-07-25 | $14.12 | $30,038,543,005 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-07-26 | $14.12 | $30,029,576,580 | 33 / 33 |
| 2026-07-27 | $14.08 | $30,024,697,594 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-07-28 | $14.08 | $30,024,697,594 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-07-29 | $14.08 | $30,024,697,594 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-07-30 | $14.12 | $30,016,555,030 | 33 / 33 |
| 2026-07-31 | $14.07 | $30,010,360,560 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-01 | $14.07 | $30,010,360,560 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-02 | $14.12 | $30,016,555,030 | 33 / 33 |
| 2026-08-03 | $14.11 | $30,011,800,490 | 33 / 33 |
| 2026-08-04 | $14.07 | $30,005,130,560 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-05 | $14.07 | $30,005,130,560 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-06 | $14.07 | $30,005,130,560 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-07 | $13.97 | $29,671,997,046 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-08 | $13.97 | $29,671,997,046 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-09 | $13.99 | $29,649,008,760 | 31 / 32 |
| 2026-08-10 | $13.97 | $29,671,997,046 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-12 | $13.99 | $29,649,152,510 | 32 / 32 |
| 2026-08-13 | $13.97 | $29,671,997,046 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-14 | $13.97 | $29,671,997,046 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-15 | $13.97 | $29,671,997,046 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-16 | $13.97 | $29,671,997,046 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-17 | $13.97 | $29,671,997,046 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-18 | $13.97 | $29,671,997,046 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-19 | $13.97 | $29,671,997,046 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-20 | $13.97 | $29,658,233,441 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-21 | $13.97 | $29,658,233,441 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-22 | $13.97 | $29,658,233,441 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-23 | $13.96 | $29,656,910,860 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-24 | $13.96 | $29,656,910,860 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-25 | $13.97 | $29,659,297,957 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-26 | $13.97 | $29,659,297,957 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-27 | $13.97 | $29,659,297,957 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-28 | $13.97 | $29,659,297,957 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-29 | $13.95 | $29,645,134,266 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-08-30 | $13.95 | $29,645,134,266 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-08-31 | $13.95 | $29,645,134,266 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-01 | $13.95 | $29,645,134,266 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-02 | $13.95 | $29,645,134,266 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-03 | $13.95 | $29,645,134,266 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-04 | $13.95 | $29,645,134,266 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-05 | $13.94 | $29,644,195,557 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-06 | $13.94 | $29,644,195,557 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-07 | $13.94 | $29,644,195,557 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-08 | $13.94 | $29,644,195,557 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-09 | $13.94 | $29,644,195,557 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-10 | $13.94 | $29,644,195,557 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-11 | $13.94 | $29,644,195,557 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-12 | $13.94 | $29,633,961,886 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-13 | $13.94 | $29,633,961,886 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-14 | $13.94 | $29,633,961,886 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-15 | $13.94 | $29,638,924,947 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-16 | $13.94 | $29,643,150,754 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-17 | $13.94 | $29,652,534,830 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-18 | $13.94 | $29,652,534,830 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-19 | $13.94 | $29,652,534,830 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-20 | $13.94 | $29,651,639,836 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-09-21 | $13.94 | $29,651,639,836 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-09-22 | $13.94 | $29,650,775,838 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-09-23 | $13.94 | $29,650,413,338 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-09-24 | $13.94 | $29,650,413,338 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-09-25 | $13.93 | $29,592,561,738 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-09-26 | $13.85 | $29,281,872,221 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-09-27 | $13.86 | $29,276,948,744 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-28 | $13.86 | $29,276,948,744 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-29 | $13.85 | $29,220,291,946 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-30 | $13.85 | $29,207,105,736 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-01 | $13.85 | $29,182,357,492 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-02 | $13.85 | $29,182,357,492 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-03 | $13.85 | $29,182,357,492 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-04 | $13.85 | $29,182,357,492 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-05 | $13.85 | $29,182,357,492 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-06 | $13.82 | $29,103,156,545 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-07 | $13.81 | $29,088,408,158 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-08 | $13.81 | $29,091,353,320 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-09 | $13.79 | $29,005,894,237 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-10 | $13.79 | $29,005,894,237 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-11 | $13.79 | $29,005,894,237 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-12 | $13.79 | $29,005,894,237 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-13 | $13.79 | $29,005,894,237 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-14 | $13.79 | $29,005,894,237 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-15 | $13.79 | $29,005,894,237 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-16 | $13.78 | $28,992,732,947 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-17 | $13.78 | $28,992,732,947 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-18 | $13.78 | $28,991,024,221 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-19 | $13.78 | $28,991,024,221 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-20 | $13.78 | $28,991,434,096 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-21 | $13.78 | $28,991,434,096 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-22 | $13.76 | $28,963,900,992 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-23 | $13.76 | $28,963,893,243 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-24 | $13.76 | $28,963,893,243 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-25 | $13.75 | $28,909,013,017 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-26 | $13.75 | $28,909,013,017 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-27 | $13.75 | $28,909,013,017 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-28 | $13.75 | $28,902,363,060 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-29 | $13.75 | $28,902,363,060 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-30 | $13.75 | $28,902,363,060 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-31 | $13.74 | $28,894,126,393 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-11-01 | $13.74 | $28,894,126,393 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-11-02 | $13.74 | $28,894,126,393 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-11-03 | $13.74 | $28,894,126,393 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-11-04 | $13.74 | $28,894,126,393 | 20 / 24 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.