McDonald's (MCD)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$278.04-0.78%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MCD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MCD — President transition
Dated 2026-08-04
Executive Vice President and President of McDonald’s USA — Joseph M. Erlinger: Mr. Erlinger left his current role with an advisory period until early 2027.
Why it matters: U.S. sales growth fell to 0.8% in Q2, and guest counts were negative. A rebound would show stronger customer demand.
Watch forQ3 U.S. comparable sales grow faster than 0.8%, with guest counts no longer negative.
Also watch forQ3 U.S. comparable sales fall below 0.8%, or guest counts remain negative.
Why it matters: McDonald's tied its new growth plan to restaurant savings. Clear progress can support better restaurant profits; delays can weaken the plan.
Watch forA company update shows a measured gain toward 250 basis points from Restaurant > NEXT work in U.S. and International Operated Markets.
Also watch forA company update reports delays, lower savings, or less than 250 basis points at full rollout.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$71 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $199 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,193 loss on $10,000 · 31.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.