McDonald's (MCD)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$255.69-1.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MCD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MCD — President transition
Dated 2026-08-04
Executive Vice President and President of McDonald’s USA — Joseph M. Erlinger: Mr. Erlinger left his current role with an advisory period until early 2027.
Why it matters: A drop in sales growth may show weak consumer demand. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifQ2 2026 sales growth was below 3.5%.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 sales growth was above 4.0%.
Why it matters: A drop in operating margin means rising costs. It may show inefficiencies in operations.
Worry ifThe operating margin was less than 45%.
Less concerning ifOperating margin was at or above 45%.
Why it matters: A drop in global sales growth may mean bigger market problems.
Worry ifGlobal sales growth is below 1.3% for the next quarter.
Less concerning ifGlobal sales growth is over 1.3%. This shows strength.
Why it matters: Weak growth in loyalty sales shows trouble keeping customers. It affects brand loyalty.
Worry ifSales to loyalty members grew less than 15%.
Less concerning ifSales to loyalty members grew more than 15%.
Why it matters: A drop in operating margin would show McDonald's is struggling to control costs. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 operating margin was below 40%.
Less concerning ifQ2 operating margin stays at or above 40%.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a shift in the consumer discretionary sector. This might affect McDonald's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below the median for the sector.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above the median for the sector.
Why it matters: Strong growth in loyalty sales shows customer interest and brand strength.
Supportive ifLoyalty program sales growth exceeds 20% year over year.
Worry ifLoyalty program sales growth falls below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would signal weakening performance in McDonald's largest market. This could impact overall growth expectations.
Worry ifU.S. comparable sales growth reported below 0.8% for the next quarter.
Less concerning ifU.S. comparable sales growth remains at or above 0.8%.
Why it matters: Reaching this goal shows a focus on growth and modernization.
Supportive ifCapital spending reported at or above $3.7 billion for 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending drops below $3.7 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: If growth drops below this level, it may show problems in McDonald's sales plan.
Worry ifGlobal systemwide sales growth reported below 5% for the next quarter.
Less concerning ifGlobal systemwide sales growth remains at or above 5%.
Why it matters: Anderson's leadership could boost sales and make operations better in the U.S. market.
Supportive ifPositive sales growth in the U.S. market attributed to initiatives led by Skye Anderson.
Worry ifU.S. sales growth stagnates or declines under her leadership.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$74 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $199 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,461 loss on $10,000 · 24.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.