Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
McKesson Corporation (MCK)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1072.00+0.24%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
50.55 → 50.62 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MCK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EPS growth of 13% to 16% annually | A primary condition in McKesson Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=13% YoY EPS growth. | Under Pressure | EPS growth falls below 13% YoY next fiscal year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Reaffirming long-term Adjusted Earnings per Diluted Share growth target of 13% to 16%.” “• Reaffirming long-term Adjusted Earnings per Diluted Share growth target of 12% to 14% and updating long-term Adjusted Segment Operating Profit growth target for U.S. Pharmaceutical from 5% to 7% to a new target of 6% to 8%.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MCK is a large healthcare distributor with a growth component from its Oncology & Multispecialty business. The long-term thesis is intact: recent financial performance is strong, and management is delivering on key growth priorities, though earnings quality is flagged as fragile.
Valuation is near peers, with a modest premium, and the evidence describes expectations as aligned with fundamentals. The expectations gap is slightly negative, so the snapshot does not point to a large gap between what the market assumes and the business outlook.
Near term, recent results and raised fiscal 2027 guidance support continued growth, while Oncology & Multispecialty has been expanding. Risk is not absent: a guidance reversal could damage credibility, and the company has a history of deep and repeated misses despite a currently low estimated miss risk.
The multi-year view hinges on management sustaining its adjusted EPS growth targets and continuing to expand Oncology & Multispecialty. A guidance cut or weakening employment data could weigh on the business outlook, while continued strong results from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, MCK’s thesis rests on strong execution and specialty growth continuing, with fragile earnings quality and guidance credibility as key risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Oncology & Multispecialty segment revenue growth | Its Oncology segment revenue rose 31% last year. | Broken | Oncology segment revenue growth falls below 20% YoY next fiscal year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• On October 5, 2026, McKesson signed a definitive agreement to invest approximately $1.4 billion for a minority interest of approximately 49% in Option Care Health, Inc. This transaction aligns with McKesson’s strategy in supporting the delivery of complex specialty therapies and expanding patient access through community-based care.” “It demonstrates the strength of our core distribution businesses, continued growth in oncology and multispecialty, and solid execution across our biopharma services platform.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Share repurchase authorization at $7.7 billion | The company increased share buybacks to $7.7 billion. | Intact | Authorization falls significantly below $7 billion within next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$50.39 → $50.62 · observed estimates
$463.49B → $461.31B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $50.39 | $463,490,443,195 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $50.39 | $463,490,443,195 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $50.37 | $463,460,796,820 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $50.37 | $463,460,796,820 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $50.37 | $463,460,796,820 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $50.37 | $463,460,796,820 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $50.37 | $463,460,796,820 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $50.42 | $463,467,000,017 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $50.42 | $463,467,000,017 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $50.38 | $463,460,796,820 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $50.42 | $463,467,000,017 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $50.38 | $463,460,796,820 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $50.42 | $463,467,000,017 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $50.38 | $463,460,796,820 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-07 | $50.45 | $462,876,478,535 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $50.45 | $462,876,478,535 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $50.45 | $462,876,478,535 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $50.50 | $462,801,882,040 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $50.45 | $462,876,478,535 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $50.53 | $462,502,091,780 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $50.45 | $462,876,478,535 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $50.45 | $462,876,478,535 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $50.45 | $462,876,478,535 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $50.45 | $462,876,478,535 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $50.45 | $462,876,478,535 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $50.45 | $462,876,478,535 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $50.54 | $462,247,175,113 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $50.54 | $462,247,175,113 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $50.54 | $462,247,175,113 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $50.54 | $462,247,175,113 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $50.54 | $462,247,175,113 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $50.54 | $462,247,175,113 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $50.49 | $461,999,741,807 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $50.49 | $461,999,741,807 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $50.49 | $461,999,741,807 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $50.54 | $462,247,175,113 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $50.54 | $462,247,175,113 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-31 | $50.54 | $462,247,175,113 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-01 | $50.54 | $462,247,188,446 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-02 | $50.54 | $462,247,188,446 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $50.54 | $462,247,188,446 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $50.54 | $462,247,188,446 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $50.55 | $462,247,188,446 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $50.55 | $462,247,188,446 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $50.55 | $462,247,188,446 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $50.55 | $462,247,188,446 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $50.55 | $462,247,188,446 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $50.55 | $462,247,188,446 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $50.55 | $462,247,188,446 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $50.55 | $462,247,188,446 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $50.55 | $462,247,188,446 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $50.55 | $462,247,188,446 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $50.55 | $462,247,175,113 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $50.55 | $462,247,175,113 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $50.55 | $462,177,073,023 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $50.55 | $462,177,073,023 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $50.55 | $462,177,073,023 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $50.55 | $462,177,093,023 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $50.55 | $462,177,093,023 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $50.55 | $462,177,093,023 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $50.55 | $462,177,093,023 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $50.55 | $462,177,093,023 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $50.55 | $462,177,093,023 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $50.55 | $462,177,093,023 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $50.55 | $462,177,093,023 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $50.55 | $462,177,093,023 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $50.50 | $461,924,653,853 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $50.50 | $461,924,653,853 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $50.50 | $461,924,653,853 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $50.50 | $461,924,653,853 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $50.50 | $461,924,653,853 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $50.50 | $461,924,653,853 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $50.50 | $461,924,653,853 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $50.55 | $461,916,439,568 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $50.63 | $461,323,877,776 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $50.69 | $461,323,877,776 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $50.69 | $461,323,877,776 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $50.69 | $461,323,877,776 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $50.69 | $461,323,877,776 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $50.69 | $461,323,877,776 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $50.69 | $461,308,794,442 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $50.67 | $461,308,794,442 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $50.67 | $461,308,794,442 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $50.67 | $461,308,794,442 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $50.67 | $461,308,794,442 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $50.62 | $461,308,794,443 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $50.62 | $461,308,794,443 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $50.62 | $461,308,794,443 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $50.62 | $461,308,794,443 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $50.62 | $461,308,794,443 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $50.62 | $461,308,794,443 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $50.62 | $461,308,794,443 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $50.62 | $461,308,794,443 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $50.62 | $461,308,794,443 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $50.62 | $461,308,794,443 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $50.62 | $461,308,794,443 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $50.62 | $461,308,794,443 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $50.62 | $461,308,794,443 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $50.62 | $461,308,794,443 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $50.62 | $461,308,794,443 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $50.62 | $461,308,794,443 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $50.62 | $461,308,794,443 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $50.62 | $461,308,794,443 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-11-05 | $50.62 | $461,308,794,443 | 9 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 4 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.