McKesson Corporation (MCK)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$907.99-1.45%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MCK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 7.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MCK — cybersecurity incident
Dated 2026-08-28
Regulation FD Disclosure. On August 25, 2026, McKesson Corporation discovered a cybersecurity incident affecting its information systems. An investigation of the incident is in its early stages. Information about the incident, including any updates, is available on the company’s website at www.mckesson.com/cybersecurity. As of the date of this filing, the company has not determined that the incident is material or that the incident has had, or is reasonably likely to have, any material impact…
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback show financial health and care for investors.
Supportive ifThey announced more share repurchases over $2 billion in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo new share repurchase announcements or a cut in the authorized amount.
Why it matters: If the outlook is confirmed, it shows trust in the company's growth.
Supportive ifManagement will confirm the fiscal 2026 outlook in the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement cuts the outlook for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: The new CFO's methods may change financial choices and company plans.
Watch forThe new CFO outlines a clear financial strategy that aligns with company goals.
Also watch forThe transition may cause uncertainty or changes in financial plans.
Why it matters: Finalizing the credit deal would give more financial options and help growth.
Supportive ifManagement says the new credit agreement is done.
Worry ifThere are delays or problems in finalizing the new credit agreement.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$119 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $273 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,717 loss on $10,000 · 27.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in the oncology segment helps McKesson's focus and revenue.
Supportive ifOncology segment revenues increase year over year by more than 30% in Q3.
Worry ifOncology segment revenues grow less than 20% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Confirming the new EPS range shows strong growth and good operations.
Supportive ifFiscal 2027 adjusted EPS lands within the new guidance range of $44.20 to $45.00.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 adjusted EPS falls below the lower end of the guidance range.
Why it matters: High repurchase activity shows strong capital use. It also shows confidence in the company's value.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $2.5 billion in Q1 2027.
Worry ifRepurchases are under $1 billion. This shows a weaker way to return capital.
Why it matters: If adjusted EPS growth is 20% or more, it shows strong operational strength.
Supportive ifQ2 adjusted EPS growth reported at 20% or higher compared to the previous year.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted EPS growth reported below 15% compared to the previous year.
Why it matters: The raised adjusted EPS guidance shows strong growth and good operations.
Supportive ifManagement confirms adjusted EPS guidance of $44.20 to $45.00 during the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement lowers the adjusted EPS guidance to below $44.20 for the next earnings call.
Why it matters: An increase in EPS guidance would show stronger growth expectations for the company.
Supportive ifManagement raises EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 during the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement maintains or lowers EPS guidance for fiscal 2026.