MONGODB, INC. (MDB)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04

$328.38-2.08%

Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change

MONGODB, INC. (MDB) Outlook: What's Priced In | QuarterlyIQ

Investment OutlookAs of Nov 4, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge MONGODB, INC.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.88 → 7.92 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 21 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 21 to 21; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MDB yet.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations

Management figures unavailable.

Current consensus figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Earnings per share rise to about $0.27 in fiscal 2027	Earnings per share may rise to about $0.27 in fiscal 2027.	Intact	EPS falls below $0.15 per share in fiscal 2027	Diluted EPS: $0.50 per share FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$0.27 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 1, 20260.5 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$7.92

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Earnings per share rise to about $0.27 in fiscal 2027Diluted EPS: $0.50 per share
Revenue grows to about $731 million in fiscal Q2 2027Revenue: $771.773M
Revenue grows to about $2.94 billion in fiscal 2027Revenue: $771.773M

Next proof point

Dec 7, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-48.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

MONGODB, INC. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 31, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-growth software business with improving operating leverage, but it is not yet a proven profitable compounder because it remains loss-making. The long-term thesis is in watch status: momentum has improved, while recent financial performance still trails its industry cohort.

What's priced into MONGODB, INC.

MDB carries a durable premium to peers, and the valuation tag says that premium is justified, though model confidence is low. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are a little ahead of the evidence; low fragility means the snapshot does not flag a concentrated valuation risk.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and profitability have strengthened: latest-quarter revenue rose 30% year over year, while non-GAAP operating margin and free cash flow improved. Management has raised fiscal 2027 guidance, but erratic and declining earnings surprises, the CEO transition, and elevated risk make execution worth watching.

What MONGODB, INC. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on sustained revenue growth and further progress in profitability, alongside evidence that AI and advanced platform features add business value. Near term, a reversal and guidance cut would damage management credibility; easier rates or steadier results from major technology peers could support the sector backdrop.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, MDB has a stronger growth and profitability profile, but its peer premium and execution risks leave the thesis in watch status. Not investment advice.

Development preview · refreshed Nov 5, 2026Open Living FV detail

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.32	$3,496,344,772	20 / 27
2026-07-25	$7.32	$3,496,344,772	20 / 27
2026-07-26	$7.32	$3,496,344,548	20 / 27
2026-07-27	$7.32	$3,496,344,548	20 / 27
2026-07-28	$7.32	$3,496,344,548	20 / 27
2026-07-29	$7.32	$3,496,344,557	20 / 27
2026-07-30	$7.32	$3,496,344,557	20 / 27
2026-07-31	$7.32	$3,496,344,557	20 / 27
2026-08-01	$7.32	$3,496,344,557	20 / 27
2026-08-02	$7.32	$3,496,344,557	20 / 27
2026-08-03	$7.32	$3,496,344,557	20 / 27
2026-08-04	$7.32	$3,496,344,557	20 / 27
2026-08-05	$7.32	$3,496,344,557	20 / 27
2026-08-06	$7.32	$3,496,344,557	20 / 27
2026-08-07	$7.32	$3,496,358,963	20 / 27
2026-08-08	$7.32	$3,496,358,963	20 / 27
2026-08-09	$7.32	$3,496,358,963	20 / 27
2026-08-10	$7.32	$3,496,358,963	20 / 27
2026-08-12	$7.32	$3,496,358,963	20 / 27
2026-08-13	$7.32	$3,496,358,963	20 / 27
2026-08-14	$7.32	$3,496,358,963	20 / 27
2026-08-15	$7.32	$3,496,358,963	20 / 27
2026-08-16	$7.32	$3,496,358,963	20 / 27
2026-08-17	$7.32	$3,496,358,963	20 / 27
2026-08-18	$7.32	$3,496,358,963	20 / 27
2026-08-19	$7.32	$3,496,358,963	20 / 27
2026-08-20	$7.32	$3,497,369,543	21 / 27
2026-08-21	$7.32	$3,497,381,428	21 / 27
2026-08-22	$7.32	$3,497,381,428	21 / 27
2026-08-23	$7.32	$3,496,624,816	21 / 28
2026-08-24	$7.32	$3,496,624,816	21 / 28
2026-08-25	$7.33	$3,496,588,684	21 / 28
2026-08-26	$7.33	$3,496,474,399	21 / 28
2026-08-27	$7.33	$3,496,474,399	21 / 28
2026-08-28	$7.33	$3,496,474,399	21 / 28
2026-08-29	$7.33	$3,496,588,684	21 / 28
2026-08-30	$7.33	$3,496,588,684	21 / 28
2026-08-31	$7.33	$3,496,588,684	21 / 28
2026-09-01	$7.33	$3,496,588,684	21 / 28
2026-09-02	$7.55	$3,541,316,179	21 / 27
2026-09-03	$7.76	$3,580,201,421	21 / 28
2026-09-04	$7.76	$3,582,182,699	21 / 28
2026-09-05	$7.76	$3,582,182,699	21 / 28
2026-09-06	$7.76	$3,582,182,699	21 / 28
2026-09-07	$7.76	$3,582,182,699	21 / 28
2026-09-08	$7.78	$3,585,607,919	21 / 28
2026-09-09	$7.78	$3,585,607,919	21 / 28
2026-09-10	$7.80	$3,583,178,740	21 / 28
2026-09-11	$7.81	$3,583,178,740	21 / 28
2026-09-12	$7.82	$3,583,502,269	21 / 28
2026-09-13	$7.82	$3,583,502,269	21 / 28
2026-09-14	$7.82	$3,583,502,269	21 / 28
2026-09-15	$7.82	$3,583,509,413	21 / 28
2026-09-16	$7.82	$3,583,509,413	21 / 28
2026-09-17	$7.82	$3,583,515,043	21 / 28
2026-09-18	$7.82	$3,583,515,043	21 / 28
2026-09-19	$7.82	$3,583,515,043	21 / 28
2026-09-20	$7.82	$3,583,515,043	21 / 28
2026-09-21	$7.82	$3,583,515,813	21 / 28
2026-09-22	$7.82	$3,583,515,813	21 / 28
2026-09-23	$7.82	$3,583,515,813	21 / 28
2026-09-24	$7.82	$3,583,515,813	21 / 28
2026-09-25	$7.82	$3,583,515,813	21 / 28
2026-09-26	$7.82	$3,583,515,813	21 / 28
2026-09-27	$7.82	$3,583,515,813	21 / 28
2026-09-28	$7.82	$3,583,515,813	21 / 28
2026-09-29	$7.82	$3,583,515,813	21 / 28
2026-09-30	$7.82	$3,583,515,813	21 / 28
2026-10-01	$7.86	$3,606,722,277	21 / 27
2026-10-02	$7.88	$3,609,251,689	21 / 28
2026-10-03	$7.88	$3,609,250,918	21 / 28
2026-10-04	$7.88	$3,609,250,918	21 / 28
2026-10-05	$7.88	$3,609,250,918	21 / 28
2026-10-06	$7.88	$3,609,250,918	21 / 28
2026-10-07	$7.88	$3,609,250,918	21 / 28
2026-10-08	$7.88	$3,609,259,330	21 / 28
2026-10-09	$7.88	$3,609,259,330	21 / 28
2026-10-10	$7.88	$3,609,259,330	21 / 28
2026-10-11	$7.88	$3,609,259,330	21 / 28
2026-10-12	$7.88	$3,609,259,330	21 / 28
2026-10-13	$7.88	$3,609,259,330	21 / 27
2026-10-14	$7.90	$3,612,500,270	21 / 27
2026-10-15	$7.90	$3,612,500,270	21 / 27
2026-10-16	$7.90	$3,612,500,270	21 / 27
2026-10-17	$7.90	$3,612,500,270	21 / 27
2026-10-18	$7.90	$3,612,500,270	21 / 27
2026-10-19	$7.90	$3,612,500,270	21 / 27
2026-10-20	$7.90	$3,612,500,270	21 / 27
2026-10-21	$7.90	$3,612,500,271	21 / 27
2026-10-22	$7.90	$3,612,500,271	21 / 27
2026-10-23	$7.90	$3,612,500,271	21 / 27
2026-10-24	$7.90	$3,612,500,271	21 / 27
2026-10-25	$7.90	$3,612,500,271	21 / 27
2026-10-26	$7.90	$3,612,500,271	21 / 27
2026-10-27	$7.90	$3,612,500,271	21 / 27
2026-10-28	$7.90	$3,612,501,042	21 / 27
2026-10-29	$7.90	$3,612,489,933	21 / 27
2026-10-30	$7.90	$3,612,489,933	21 / 27
2026-10-31	$7.88	$3,612,489,933	21 / 27
2026-11-01	$7.88	$3,612,489,933	21 / 27
2026-11-02	$7.88	$3,612,489,933	21 / 27
2026-11-03	$7.88	$3,612,489,933	21 / 27
2026-11-04	$7.92	$3,619,418,792	21 / 27

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-06-01	32	9	1
2026-07-01	31	9	0
2026-08-01	32	9	1
2026-09-01	32	9	1
2026-10-01	32	9	0
2026-11-01	32	8	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 32 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded

What could strengthen or challenge MONGODB, INC.’s outlook?

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

What the Thesis Depends On

Incoming Evidence

Expectations trend

Outlook in Brief

What's improving

Still unresolved / key risks

Next proof point

Historical risk context

MONGODB, INC. outlook in detail

What kind of bet this is

What's priced into MONGODB, INC.

What the fundamentals likely do

What MONGODB, INC. hinges on

Bottom line

Analyst view

Price-target changes

Bottom line