MONGODB, INC. (MDB)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$368.74-4.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
MongoDB grows revenue to about $2.94 billion in fiscal 2027. Next quarter revenue should be about $731 million. Earnings per share may rise to about $0.27 in fiscal 2027. New AI data platform features support this growth.
MongoDB is loss-making and faces profit pressure. The CFO and CEO changes may hurt execution. Earnings missed recently, showing risks to growth and profits.
The price is about 15% above our fair value near $314. Analysts expect about 20% revenue growth. Our fair value is 21% below the Street median, so weigh the Street range carefully.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $0.15 per share in fiscal 2027
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $729 million in fiscal Q2 2027
Revenue falls below $2.92 billion in fiscal 2027
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
MDB is positioned as a growth-oriented tech company focusing on revenue expansion and AI capabilities. The current thesis state indicates a cautious watch due to mixed recent performance and elevated risk factors.
The market appears to have priced in a durable premium compared to peers, suggesting that expectations are aligned with MDB's recent performance. There is a low expectations gap, indicating that current valuations are justified given the company's fundamentals.
Management is on track to drive strong revenue growth, as evidenced by a significant year-over-year increase. However, the company remains loss-making, and while profitability is improving, recent earnings surprises have been erratic.
The thesis hinges on key factors such as the Fed's interest rate decisions and the performance of major tech sector players. A credibility hit from any guidance cuts would negatively impact sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation rose by 21.8 points (from 33.0 to 54.8).
Yes, our read has weakened. MongoDB management raised its full-year Atlas growth expectation to approximately 27%. This is an increase of 300 basis points from prior guidance. However, the stock experienced a sharp drop of 14% recently, suggesting a potential repricing of the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
In the next 1 to 3 years, MDB's performance will depend on its ability to maintain growth and manage risks effectively. Not investment advice.