Medifast, Inc. (MED)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.63+0.72%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put MED beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — EPS loss within -$2.75 to -$1.55 range in 2026: FY26 EPS guidance mid -$1.00 vs target range -$2.75 to -$1.55.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 34% over the past year.
View GrowthManagement screens weak on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, guidance credibility.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 1% on a typical day and fell roughly 35% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskMED's growth depends on the successful launch and establishment of the Trilivy metabolic health system. Revenue has been weak, with a recent earnings beat showing a year-over-year revenue decline of 27.6%. MED trades at 0.4× price-to-sales, below the peer median of 0.8×. This suggests the price reflects less growth than forecasted, indicating modest expectations. The primary risk is the potential for a guidance cut, with a 36% probability of missing estimates in the next quarter. Peer multiples imply a price about 46% above where it trades. The thesis is on watch due to pressure on the primary pillar.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. MED is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 1 analyst currently covering MED (as of Sep 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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Compare MED with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MED Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Specialized Consumer Services — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put MED next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Launch and establish Trilivy metabolic health system
Trilivy rollout is crucial for growth and profitability.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Advances: Launch and establish Trilivy metabolic health system
Trilivy launch supports growth objectives and enhances brand presence.
New CEO may align with growth objectives.
Experienced CEO could drive strategic growth.