Medifast, Inc. (MED)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.63+0.72%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MED
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -46.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -10.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MED — officer change
Dated 2026-06-01
Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary — Jason L. Groves, Esq.: Mr. Groves tendered his resignation from the Company.
Why it matters: High SG&A costs compared to revenue show ongoing problems with efficiency and cost control.
Worry ifSG&A expenses reported above 75% of revenue.
Less concerning ifSG&A expenses reported below 70% of revenue.
Why it matters: Success in this program could improve operating income and help manage losses.
Supportive ifCost savings from the Catalyst program were over $5 million in Q3.
Worry ifNo big cost savings came from the Catalyst program in Q3.
Why it matters: Trilivy is a major shift for Medifast. Its success could drive future growth and coach engagement.
Watch forLook for good feedback or sales numbers from the Trilivy Reset Fueling line. This follows its launch in August.
Also watch forWatch for bad feedback or low sales numbers from the Trilivy Reset Fueling line. This follows its launch in August.
Why it matters: A successful launch could attract new customers and boost sales in metabolic health.
Supportive ifTrilivy meal replacements launched on time in August 2026. Customers liked them.
Worry ifThe launch is delayed or gets bad feedback. This shows problems with product acceptance.
Why it matters: Falling below this range would signal ongoing struggles with coach recruitment and sales.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was below $60 million. This shows fewer active earning coaches.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue was above $80 million. This suggests better coach productivity and sales.
Why it matters: A successful launch of Trilivy could mean better client engagement and more revenue.
Supportive ifPositive feedback or sales metrics from the Trilivy product line after its launch.
Worry ifNegative feedback or low early sales from the Trilivy product line.
Why it matters: Cutting SG&A costs could lower losses and show better cost control.
Supportive ifSG&A expenses decrease further from $57.7 million in Q2 2026 due to the Catalyst program.
Worry ifSG&A costs are over $57.7 million. This shows poor cost control.
Why it matters: This range is key to meeting the full year revenue target of $270M to $300M. Revenue trends will show if the turnaround is on track.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue reported within the range of $60 million to $80 million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue reported below $60 million.
Why it matters: More coaches are important for future revenue and making money.
Supportive ifThe number of active earning coaches increases from 11,700 in Q2 2026.
Worry ifActive earning coaches are below 11,700. This shows problems in recruiting new coaches.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would signal a potential turnaround for Medifast. The sector is currently declining, so this change is crucial.
Supportive ifRevenue growth turns positive year over year in the next earnings report.
Worry ifRevenue continues to decline year over year in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Falling below this range would indicate ongoing struggles in coach recruitment and sales.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $60 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue reported above $80 million.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth would show that the shift to metabolic health is working.
Supportive ifSales from the Trilivy product line are higher than expected.
Worry ifSales from the Trilivy product line fall short of expectations.
Why it matters: A bigger loss means worse financial health and problems with managing costs.
Worry ifQ3 EPS loss reported worse than -$0.65.
Less concerning ifQ3 EPS loss reported better than -$0.15.
Why it matters: If fewer active coaches continue, it shows problems with getting new clients.
Worry ifActive earning coaches reported less than 11,700.
Less concerning ifActive earning coaches reported more than 14,000.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$123 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $432 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,514 loss on $10,000 · 35.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.