Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Mistras Group, Inc. (MG)
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$20.14-0.44%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.25 → 1.25 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve cash flow from operations | The company aims to improve cash flow from operations. | Broken | Cash flow remains below $10 million over next 4 quarters | Cash from operations: $14.909M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Positive cash from operations above $30 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 202614,909,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a smaller-cap growth and execution story, not yet a proven durable compounder, because the evidence describes earnings as loss-making. The thesis is in a watch state: recent results and guidance are constructive, but performance remains below its industry cohort.
MG is valued as cheap versus peers, with an expectations gap near neutral; the evidence labels what is priced in as justified and fragility as low. The valuation measure recently declined, but valuation alone does not resolve the gap between revenue growth and ongoing losses.
Near term, revenue growth and raised full-year guidance support management’s expansion focus, while first-half free cash flow improved from the prior-year period. Debt reduction and in-lab capacity expansion are only partly demonstrated, and smaller-cap status plus declining earnings surprises are risks despite a low stated miss probability.
Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether MG can sustain its raised guidance without a reversal that would damage management credibility. The multi-year view also depends on progress toward stronger cash generation and lower leverage, while results and guidance from industrial bellwethers could either support or weaken the sector backdrop.
The 1-to-3-year thesis has signs of revenue progress, but remains conditional on execution, cash improvement, and a less adverse sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Analysts see earnings rising to $1.04 per share in 2026. |
| Improving |
| EPS falls below $1.00 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.21 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.04 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 20260.21 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $740 million in 2026 | Mistras Group expects revenue near $740 million in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $716 million in FY26 | Revenue: $204.621M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$740 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 2026204,621,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.25 → $1.25 · observed estimates
$0.79B → $0.79B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.25 | $788,081,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.25 | $788,081,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.25 | $788,081,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.23 | $781,126,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.25 | $788,081,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.23 | $781,126,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.25 | $788,081,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.25 | $788,081,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.23 | $781,126,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.25 | $788,081,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.25 | $788,081,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.25 | $788,081,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.23 | $781,126,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.25 | $788,081,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.23 | $781,126,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.25 | $788,081,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.25 | $788,081,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.25 | $788,081,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.23 | $781,126,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.25 | $788,081,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.23 | $781,126,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.23 | $781,126,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.23 | $781,126,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.23 | $781,126,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.23 | $781,126,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.23 | $781,126,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.25 | $787,735,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.25 | $785,027,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.25 | $787,727,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.25 | $787,727,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.25 | $787,727,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.25 | $787,727,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.25 | $787,727,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.25 | $787,727,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.25 | $787,727,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.25 | $787,727,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.25 | $787,727,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.25 | $787,727,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.25 | $787,727,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.25 | $787,727,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.25 | $787,727,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.25 | $787,727,750 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.