Mistras Group, Inc. (MG)
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.12+0.31%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 5, 2026, Mistras Group, Inc. (the "Company," "we," "us" and "our") issued a press release announcing the financial results for our first quarter, which ended on March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. Disclosure of Non-GAAP Financial Measures In the press release attached, the Company uses the terms “Adjusted EBITDA,” “free cash flow,” "net debt" and "income from operations before special item…
Why it matters: Better margins mean more profit. They also show improved efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 13.3% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin drops below 13.3% in Q3.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows good cost management and better profits.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 is over $92 million. This shows strong operations.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 is under $91 million. This shows operations have problems.
Why it matters: Sustaining revenue growth signals strong demand in key markets like Aerospace & Defense.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 4% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow supports debt reduction and investment in growth.
Supportive ifFree cash flow is positive in Q3.
Worry ifFree cash flow turns negative in Q3.
Why it matters: Recovery in Oil & Gas revenue is key for overall growth. It affects the company's financial health.
Watch forOil & Gas revenue increases quarter over quarter.
Also watch forOil & Gas revenue continues to decline quarter over quarter.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it may signal a positive shift for Mistras Group.
Supportive ifRevenue growth in the industrial sector exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$145 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $334 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,220 loss on $10,000 · 22.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.