Magnite, Inc. (MGNI)

NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-05

$27.52+20.75%

Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Nov 5, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Magnite, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.38 → 1.38 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MGNI yet.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations

Management figures unavailable.

Current consensus figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA margin at least 35.5%	Profit margin aims to rise to at least 35.5%.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 35.5% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “\|\| (5) \| Free cash flow is defined as operating cash flow (Adjusted EBITDA less capital expenditures) less net interest expense.” “\|\| (5) \| Free cash flow is defined as operating cash flow (Adjusted EBITDA less capital expenditures) less net interest expense.”

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.38

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA margin at least 35.5%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Contribution ex-TAC attributable to DV+ $87M-$89MDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Free cash flow growth in mid 30% rangeFree cash flow growth: 7,112.26%

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Magnite, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 31, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented advertising technology business, with recent financial performance in the stronger half of its industry. Its long-term thesis is intact, but earnings quality is fragile and risk is elevated, so execution needs to keep supporting the growth story.

What's priced into Magnite, Inc.

Valuation is expensive relative to peers, with a 1.74 premium measure, and the valuation score recently rose from 26.0 to 36.6. The evidence points to a stretched setup and some positive expectations, but the estimated expectations gap is 0.22 and model confidence is low, so the precise degree of optimism is uncertain.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s stated growth priorities are showing progress: Contribution ex-TAC and CTV contribution grew year over year, while full-year margin and free-cash-flow growth guidance improved. The main near-term risks are a possible guidance cut, weakening earnings surprises, and a sector backdrop marked as a headwind; a CFO transition is also among the recent events.

What Magnite, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued growth in CTV and Contribution ex-TAC, and on sustaining the improved margin and cash-flow outlook. A guidance cut would challenge execution, while Fed rate cuts or continued strength from sector bellwethers could provide a more supportive backdrop.

Bottom line

For the next 1 to 3 years, MGNI has a credible growth and profitability story, but the expensive valuation leaves less room for weak execution. The thesis remains intact, with medium confidence, and hinges on delivery against guidance in a sector facing headwinds. Not investment advice.

Development preview · refreshed Nov 6, 2026Open Living FV detail

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.24	$821,396,192	8 / 7
2026-07-25	$1.24	$815,170,400	10 / 10
2026-07-26	$1.24	$815,170,400	10 / 10
2026-07-27	$1.24	$821,396,192	8 / 7
2026-07-28	$1.24	$815,170,400	10 / 10
2026-07-29	$1.24	$815,170,400	10 / 10
2026-07-30	$1.24	$816,160,400	10 / 10
2026-07-31	$1.24	$816,160,400	10 / 10
2026-08-01	$1.24	$821,434,038	8 / 7
2026-08-02	$1.24	$816,160,400	10 / 10
2026-08-03	$1.24	$816,160,400	10 / 10
2026-08-04	$1.24	$821,434,038	8 / 7
2026-08-05	$1.24	$816,160,400	10 / 10
2026-08-06	$1.24	$820,860,400	10 / 10
2026-08-07	$1.32	$834,416,538	8 / 7
2026-08-08	$1.28	$835,853,500	10 / 10
2026-08-09	$1.28	$835,853,500	10 / 10
2026-08-10	$1.28	$835,853,500	10 / 10
2026-08-12	$1.29	$838,146,500	10 / 10
2026-08-13	$1.29	$838,146,500	10 / 10
2026-08-14	$1.32	$834,416,538	8 / 7
2026-08-15	$1.32	$834,416,538	8 / 7
2026-08-16	$1.32	$834,416,538	8 / 7
2026-08-17	$1.32	$834,416,538	8 / 7
2026-08-18	$1.32	$834,416,538	8 / 7
2026-08-19	$1.32	$834,416,538	8 / 7
2026-08-20	$1.34	$841,514,923	8 / 7
2026-08-21	$1.34	$841,514,923	8 / 7
2026-08-22	$1.34	$841,514,923	8 / 7
2026-08-23	$1.34	$841,514,923	8 / 7
2026-08-24	$1.34	$841,514,923	8 / 7
2026-08-25	$1.34	$841,514,923	8 / 7
2026-08-26	$1.34	$841,514,923	8 / 7
2026-08-27	$1.34	$841,514,923	8 / 7
2026-08-28	$1.34	$841,514,923	8 / 7
2026-08-29	$1.34	$841,514,923	8 / 7
2026-08-30	$1.34	$841,514,923	8 / 7
2026-08-31	$1.34	$841,514,923	8 / 7
2026-09-01	$1.34	$841,487,808	8 / 7
2026-09-02	$1.34	$841,487,808	8 / 7
2026-09-03	$1.34	$841,487,808	8 / 7
2026-09-04	$1.34	$841,487,808	8 / 7
2026-09-05	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-06	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-07	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-08	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-09	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-10	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-11	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-12	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-13	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-14	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-15	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-16	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-17	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-18	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-19	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-20	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-21	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-22	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-23	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-24	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-25	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-26	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-27	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-28	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-29	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-30	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-10-01	$1.38	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-10-02	$1.38	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-10-03	$1.38	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-10-04	$1.38	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-10-05	$1.38	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-10-06	$1.38	$843,339,346	8 / 7
2026-10-07	$1.38	$843,339,346	8 / 7
2026-10-08	$1.38	$843,339,346	8 / 7
2026-10-09	$1.38	$843,339,346	8 / 7
2026-10-10	$1.38	$843,339,346	8 / 7
2026-10-11	$1.38	$843,339,346	8 / 7
2026-10-12	$1.38	$843,339,346	8 / 7
2026-10-13	$1.38	$843,339,346	8 / 7
2026-10-14	$1.38	$843,339,346	8 / 7
2026-10-15	$1.38	$843,339,346	8 / 7
2026-10-16	$1.38	$843,366,462	8 / 7
2026-10-17	$1.38	$843,366,462	8 / 7
2026-10-18	$1.38	$843,366,462	8 / 7
2026-10-19	$1.38	$843,366,462	8 / 7
2026-10-20	$1.38	$843,366,462	8 / 7
2026-10-21	$1.38	$843,366,462	8 / 7
2026-10-22	$1.38	$843,366,462	8 / 7
2026-10-23	$1.38	$843,366,462	8 / 7
2026-10-24	$1.38	$843,366,462	8 / 7
2026-10-25	$1.38	$843,366,462	8 / 7
2026-10-26	$1.38	$843,366,462	8 / 7
2026-10-27	$1.38	$843,366,462	8 / 7
2026-10-28	$1.38	$843,403,077	8 / 7
2026-10-29	$1.38	$843,526,154	8 / 7
2026-10-30	$1.38	$843,526,154	8 / 7
2026-10-31	$1.38	$843,526,154	8 / 7
2026-11-01	$1.38	$843,526,154	8 / 7
2026-11-02	$1.38	$843,526,154	8 / 7
2026-11-03	$1.38	$843,526,154	8 / 7
2026-11-04	$1.38	$843,526,154	8 / 7
2026-11-05	$1.38	$843,526,154	8 / 7

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-06-01	14	2
2026-07-01	13	2
2026-08-01	13	2
2026-09-01	13	2
2026-10-01	13	2
2026-11-01	13	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 3 recorded

Magnite, Inc. (MGNI) Outlook: What's Priced In | QuarterlyIQ

What could strengthen or challenge Magnite, Inc.’s outlook?

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

What the Thesis Depends On

Incoming Evidence

Expectations trend

Outlook in Brief

What's improving

Still unresolved / key risks

Next proof point

Historical risk context

Magnite, Inc. outlook in detail

What kind of bet this is

What's priced into Magnite, Inc.

What the fundamentals likely do

What Magnite, Inc. hinges on

Bottom line

Analyst view

Price-target changes

Bottom line