Magnite, Inc. (MGNI)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$27.52+20.75%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MGNI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 53.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 44.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MGNI — credit agreement
Dated 2026-10-07
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 7, 2026, Magnite, Inc. (the “ Company ”), a Delaware corporation, entered into that certain Amendment No. 3 (“ Amendment No. 3 ”) to that certain Credit Agreement, dated February 6, 2024, by and among the Company, Morgan Stanley Senior Funding, Inc., as the term facility administrative agent, Citibank, N.A., as revolving facility administrative agent, collateral agent and swingline lender and the several banks and other financial institut…
Why it matters: Magnite guided to $98 million to $100 million for Q3. A result above that range would extend strong CTV growth.
Supportive ifQ3 CTV contribution ex-TAC is above $100 million and grows more than 36% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 CTV contribution ex-TAC is below $98 million or grows less than 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Magnite raised its 2026 margin goal to at least 37%. The Q3 result will show whether it can keep that level.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA margin is at least 37%, and full-year guidance remains at least 37%.
Worry ifQ3 margin is below 35.5%, or full-year guidance is cut below 37%.
Why it matters: Q2 contribution beat its range, and full-year growth guidance rose to 13% to 14%. Another beat would support that stronger view.
Supportive ifQ3 contribution ex-TAC is above $192 million, with full-year growth guidance kept at 13% to 14% or raised.
Worry ifQ3 contribution ex-TAC is below $188 million, or full-year growth guidance falls below 13%.
Why it matters: Management raised its free cash flow growth goal to the high 40% range. The year-end results will test that goal.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 free cash flow grows in the high 40% range year over year.
Worry ifFull-year free cash flow growth is below the mid 30% range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$143 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $531 loss on $10,000 · 5.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,450 loss on $10,000 · 34.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Gephart took over as CFO on October 1. Clear reporting and steady guidance would show a smooth handoff.
Watch forThe November 4 report keeps 2026 contribution growth guidance at 13% to 14% and margin guidance at 37% or more.
Also watch forThe November 4 report cuts either growth guidance below 13% or margin guidance below 37%.