Magnite, Inc. (MGNI)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$24.14-1.99%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MGNI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 43.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 33.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MGNI — CFO transition
Dated 2026-04-20
CFO — David Day: David Day plans to retire as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer with an orderly transition plan in place.
Why it matters: Strong CTV growth is key for overall revenue. Exceeding this target shows continued momentum.
Supportive ifQ3 Contribution ex-TAC from CTV meets or exceeds $98 million.
Worry ifQ3 Contribution ex-TAC from CTV falls below $98 million.
Why it matters: This growth rate is a key indicator of overall performance. A drop below 13% could signal weakening demand.
Worry ifQ3 Contribution ex-TAC growth is below 13%.
Less concerning ifQ3 Contribution ex-TAC growth reported at or above 13%.
Why it matters: Growth in DV+ is crucial for overall performance. Meeting this target indicates strong demand.
Supportive ifContribution ex-TAC from DV+ meets or exceeds $90 million.
Worry ifContribution ex-TAC from DV+ falls below $90 million.
Why it matters: This growth range is key to confirming the company's ongoing momentum in the CTV segment.
Supportive ifContribution ex-TAC for Q2 2026 reported within the range of $177 million to $181 million.
Worry ifContribution ex-TAC is below $177 million. This shows weaker performance.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$194 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $579 loss on $10,000 · 5.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,679 loss on $10,000 · 56.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is vital for funding growth. A drop could limit future investments.
Worry ifFree cash flow growth reported below 40%.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow growth reported at or above 40%.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect plans and actions. This may change how investors feel.
Watch forNew CFO provides guidance that aligns with or improves prior targets.
Also watch forNew CFO issues guidance that is lower than prior targets.
Why it matters: The new CFO's vision will change financial strategy. This is important during growth.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new CFO who aligns with the company's growth strategy.
Also watch forThere is a delay in appointing a new CFO. This causes uncertainty in leadership.
Why it matters: This margin shows better efficiency. It also means more profit.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is 35.5% or more in future earnings.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is below 35.5%. This shows ongoing challenges.