Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
Middleby (MIDD)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$130.14+2.03%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.77 → 7.76 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MIDD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Return capital to shareholders near $720 million in 2025 | It returned $720 million to shareholders in 2025. | Intact | Capital returned falls below $720 million in 2025 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a focused industrial business with a growth-and-execution thesis, not a clear turnaround or established compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: momentum improved, but recent financial performance still trails its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence says MIDD is cheap versus peers, with no expectations gap indicated. The model also shows a peer premium, so the valuation signals are mixed; confidence in the assessment is medium, and the priced-in fragility tier is low.
Near term, strong Commercial Foodservice organic sales growth and the completed food processing separation support the operating story, while an August earnings beat and raised guidance are positive recent signals. Performance has nonetheless lagged the industry cohort, and a guidance reversal would hurt management credibility; the evidence also notes a history of a deep miss and recent peer misses.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis hinges on sustaining Commercial Foodservice growth and delivering after the separation. Guidance credibility is a key swing factor, while industrial bellwethers’ results may signal whether the sector backdrop remains supportive or weakens.
MIDD has improving momentum and evidence of execution on key priorities, but the long-term thesis remains watchful given relative performance weakness and a headwind from the sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company raised 2026 EPS guidance to about $9.7 per share. |
| Broken |
| EPS guidance falls below $9.54 for FY 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $1.21 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=9.54 USD_PER_SHARE. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 13, 20261.21 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reach revenue between $3.36B and $3.44B in FY 2026 | A primary condition in Middleby's published investment case. The stated target is >=3360 USD_MILLIONS. | Broken | Revenue falls below $3.36 billion in FY 2026 | Revenue: $875.549M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3360 USD_MILLIONS. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 13, 2026875,549,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete spin-off of Food Processing business by end of Q2 2026 | Middleby spun off its Food Processing business in July 2026. | Intact | spin-off not completed by end of Q2 2026 | Completed 2026-07-06 vs 2026-Q2 target MIDD completed spin-off of Midera Food Processing on July 6, 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “With this separation, Middleby is now a pure-play commercial foodservice company, focused on driving innovation and growth across the global foodservice industry.” “With this separation, Middleby is now a pure-play commercial foodservice company, focused on driving innovation and growth across the global foodservice industry.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.86 → $7.76 · observed estimates
$2.55B → $2.61B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $8.86 | $2,553,183,895 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $8.86 | $2,553,183,895 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $8.86 | $2,553,183,895 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $8.86 | $2,553,183,895 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $8.86 | $2,553,183,895 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $8.86 | $2,553,183,895 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $8.86 | $2,553,183,895 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $8.86 | $2,553,183,895 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $8.86 | $2,553,183,895 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $8.86 | $2,553,183,895 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $8.86 | $2,553,183,895 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $8.86 | $2,553,183,895 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $8.86 | $2,553,183,895 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $8.86 | $2,553,183,895 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $8.86 | $2,553,183,895 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $8.86 | $2,553,183,895 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $8.86 | $2,553,183,895 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $8.86 | $2,553,183,895 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $8.86 | $2,553,183,895 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $8.86 | $2,553,183,895 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $8.86 | $2,553,183,895 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $8.86 | $2,553,183,895 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $8.86 | $2,553,183,895 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $8.86 | $2,553,183,895 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $8.86 | $2,553,183,895 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $8.86 | $2,553,183,895 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.72 | $2,611,237,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.72 | $2,611,237,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.72 | $2,611,237,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.72 | $2,611,237,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.72 | $2,611,237,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.72 | $2,611,237,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.72 | $2,611,237,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.72 | $2,611,237,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.72 | $2,611,237,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.72 | $2,611,237,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.72 | $2,611,237,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.72 | $2,611,237,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.72 | $2,611,237,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.73 | $2,611,241,762 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.75 | $2,611,877,778 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.75 | $2,611,877,778 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.75 | $2,611,877,778 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.75 | $2,611,877,778 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.75 | $2,611,877,778 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.75 | $2,611,877,778 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.75 | $2,611,877,778 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.75 | $2,611,877,778 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.75 | $2,611,920,955 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.75 | $2,611,920,955 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.75 | $2,611,920,955 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.75 | $2,611,920,955 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.75 | $2,611,920,955 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.77 | $2,612,032,066 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.77 | $2,612,032,066 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.77 | $2,612,032,066 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.77 | $2,612,032,066 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.77 | $2,612,032,066 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.77 | $2,612,032,066 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.77 | $2,612,032,066 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.77 | $2,612,032,066 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.77 | $2,612,032,066 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.77 | $2,612,032,066 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.77 | $2,612,032,066 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.77 | $2,612,032,066 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.77 | $2,612,032,066 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.77 | $2,612,032,066 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.77 | $2,612,032,066 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.77 | $2,612,032,066 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.77 | $2,612,032,066 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.77 | $2,612,032,066 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.77 | $2,612,032,066 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.77 | $2,612,032,066 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.77 | $2,612,032,066 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.77 | $2,612,032,066 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.77 | $2,612,032,066 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.76 | $2,609,967,688 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.76 | $2,609,967,688 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.76 | $2,609,967,688 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.76 | $2,609,967,688 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.76 | $2,609,967,688 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.76 | $2,609,967,688 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.76 | $2,609,967,688 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.76 | $2,609,967,688 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.76 | $2,609,967,688 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.76 | $2,609,967,688 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.76 | $2,609,967,688 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.76 | $2,609,967,688 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.76 | $2,609,967,688 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.76 | $2,609,967,688 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.76 | $2,609,967,688 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.76 | $2,609,967,688 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.76 | $2,609,967,688 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.76 | $2,609,967,688 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.76 | $2,609,967,688 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.76 | $2,609,967,688 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.76 | $2,609,971,477 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.76 | $2,609,967,688 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.76 | $2,609,967,688 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.76 | $2,609,967,688 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.76 | $2,609,967,688 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.76 | $2,609,967,688 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.76 | $2,609,967,688 | 7 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.