Middleby (MIDD)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$127.55+3.93%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MIDD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -24.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers
MIDD — CEO transition
Dated 2026-11-05
CEO — Timothy J. FitzGerald: The CEO is stepping down in an orderly transition with a named internal successor (Steven P. Spittle) already promoted to President, indicating a planned succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Middleby raised its full-year foodservice growth guide after two strong quarters. Q3 is the first test after the Food Processing spin.
Watch forQ3 organic sales growth is at or above the 4% guide, and sales are within the $620 million to $640 million range.
Also watch forQ3 organic sales growth is below 4%, or sales fall below $620 million.
Why it matters: Management set a Q3 adjusted EPS range after the spin. The result will test earnings from the new business mix.
Watch forQ3 adjusted EPS is at or above $1.67 and within the $1.67 to $1.83 guide.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted EPS is below $1.67.
Why it matters: The Q2 figure is preliminary and will be finalized in Q3. A large change would alter the starting point for the standalone business.
Watch forThe Q3 filing reports Q2 adjusted EPS excluding Food Processing at about $1.74.
Also watch forThe final Q2 figure excluding Food Processing is below $1.74.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$108 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $316 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,626 loss on $10,000 · 26.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.