Middleby (MIDD)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$111.75-0.58%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MIDD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -31.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -21.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MIDD — Chief Strategy Officer transition
Dated 2026-07-06
Board of Directors member / Chief Development Officer — Mr. Robert A. Nerbonne, Ms. Cathy T. McCarthy, Mr. Matthew R. Fuchsen: The executives resigned to serve in new roles at Midera following the Spin-off.
Why it matters: Improved gross profit margins indicate better cost management and pricing power. This is crucial for financial health.
Supportive ifQ2 gross profit margin improves by more than 2% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 gross profit margin declines year over year.
Why it matters: This will show if the strong growth trend continues after the spin-off. Consistent growth is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifIn Q3 2026, organic sales growth in Commercial Foodservice is over 4%.
Worry ifIn Q3 2026, organic sales growth in Commercial Foodservice is under 4%.
Why it matters: This spin-off is a key step in Middleby's transformation. It will create two focused companies, which could enhance shareholder value.
Supportive ifThe spin-off is done. Shares went to Middleby shareholders as planned.
Worry ifThe spin-off is delayed or canceled. This creates uncertainty about the company’s future.
Why it matters: The new CFO's plans could shape Middleby's financial strategy post-spin-off. Strong initiatives may drive growth.
Watch forThe new CFO shares a clear plan. It matches growth targets and improves operations.
Also watch forThe CFO's plan is unclear. It does not address key growth areas, raising execution concerns.
Why it matters: The sector is maturing. If Middleby grows revenue faster, it may gain market share.
Supportive ifRevenue growth exceeds 8% year over year in Q2.
Worry ifRevenue growth stays below 4% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: A new CEO may change company direction. This could affect growth and operations.
Watch forNew plans were announced that support revenue growth.
Also watch forNo new plans or strategy changes came after the CEO transition.
Why it matters: Management wants to return money to shareholders. More buybacks may show trust in the company.
Supportive ifThey announced share repurchases over $100 million after the spin-off. This shows strong capital use.
Worry ifNo big share repurchase announcements. This suggests a careful approach to capital use.
Why it matters: New products can drive growth in Commercial Foodservice. Positive reception could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifMiddleby shares new product launches at Investor Day on May 12, 2026.
Worry ifMiddleby has no news on new products. They also receive bad feedback at Investor Day.
Why it matters: Falling below this level could mean problems after the spin-off. It is a key sign of financial health.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA was less than $143 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA was more than $150 million.
Why it matters: Management expects 4-6% growth in this area. Good performance may show ongoing demand.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue for Commercial Foodservice is over $620 million. This shows strong demand.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue is below $600 million. This suggests weaker market conditions.
Why it matters: Management wants to grow operating income. This shows they are controlling costs better.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 operating income growth remains below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: This will indicate if the growth trend in Commercial Foodservice is weakening. A drop below 4% could signal challenges in the sector.
Worry ifQ3 organic sales growth was less than 4%.
Less concerning ifQ3 organic sales growth was more than 4%.
Why it matters: More share repurchases show that management believes in the company's future. This shows good spending.
Supportive ifManagement says they bought back over 2 million shares in Q3.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below 1 million shares in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $324 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,468 loss on $10,000 · 24.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.