Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$9.39 → $9.39 · observed estimates
Maximus Inc. (MMS)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$68.51+4.66%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.39 → 9.39 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MMS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow near $450M to $500M next quarter | The company maintains strong free cash flow near $450M to $500M. | Under Pressure | Free cash flow falls below $450M next quarter | Free cash flow: $-136.967M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $450M next quarter. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 6, 2026-136,967,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$9.39 → $9.39 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MMS is a value-oriented services business with recent financial performance that is strong relative to its industry. Its long-term thesis is intact, though earnings quality is fragile and overall risk is elevated.
The valuation is cheap versus peers, and the valuation score has fallen recently. The evidence describes expectations as justified, with low fragility in what is priced in, rather than a full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.
Near-term results have been strong, with earnings beats in August and October, while the latest thesis read says recent performance remains in the top half of the industry. Management has shown progress on efficiency, but a guidance cut after the recent increase would damage credibility; the defense acquisition has completed, though its financial contribution is not yet shown.
Over the next few quarters, the key company-specific risk is whether MMS can sustain its raised guidance without a reversal. The broader setup also depends on sector bellwethers continuing to report strong results and higher guidance, or instead signaling that the Industrials tailwind is fading.
For a 1-3 year view, the thesis remains intact, supported by strong recent performance and a cheap valuation versus peers, but fragile earnings quality and elevated risk limit confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Maximus delivers stable operating income near $148.5M. |
| Under Pressure |
| Operating income falls below $148.5M next quarter |
Operating income: $161.428M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $148.5M next quarter. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 6, 2026161,428,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Gross margin near 14.2% | A supporting condition in Maximus Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 14.2% next quarter. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 14.2% next quarter | Gross margin: 27.27% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= 14.2% next quarter. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 6, 202627.272159 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $5.2B to $5.35B next quarter | Revenue is expected around $5.2B to $5.35B next quarter. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $5.2B next quarter | Revenue: $1.279B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.2B next quarter. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 6, 20261,278,971,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.83B → $5.83B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.39 | $5,833,539,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 19, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.