Maximus Inc. (MMS)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$69.22+1.04%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MMS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -53.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 58.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 14 industry peers
MMS — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-05-28
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance-Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The disclosure set forth under
Why it matters: The deal raises the preliminary debt ratio from 1.7x to a range of 2.2x to 2.5x. A higher figure would add pressure as Maximus integrates Agile Defense.
Worry ifThe next filing shows the debt ratio after the Agile Defense deal is above 2.5x.
Less concerning ifThe next filing shows the debt ratio after the deal is 2.5x or lower.
Why it matters: Cash flow guidance fell after a $137 million quarterly outflow. The result tests whether cash collections recovered as planned.
Watch forThe November 19 report shows FY2026 free cash flow of at least $425 million.
Also watch forThe November 19 report shows FY2026 free cash flow below $425 million.
Why it matters: The $660 million deal would add defense work and about 1,100 cleared staff. A late or failed close would delay that growth plan.
Watch forMaximus reports the deal closed by the end of Q1 FY2027, with no major new closing conditions.
Also watch forMaximus reports the deal did not close by the end of Q1 FY2027, or says it was ended or blocked.
Why it matters: Management said revenue growth could turn positive by year-end. That would mark a change after lower revenue in Q3.
Supportive ifU.S. Services revenue in the next report is above the same quarter a year earlier.
Worry ifU.S. Services revenue in the next report is flat or lower year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $314 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,710 loss on $10,000 · 47.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.