Maximus Inc. (MMS)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$57.66-1.32%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MMS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -46.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 48.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MMS — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-05-28
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance-Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The disclosure set forth under
Why it matters: Stability in this segment is key for overall performance. A decline may show deeper issues.
Worry ifU.S. Federal Services Segment revenue holds above $721 million for the next quarter.
Less concerning ifRevenue is below $721 million. This suggests there are challenges with federal contracts.
Why it matters: The size of the sales pipeline shows future revenue potential. A drop may mean problems ahead.
Worry ifSales pipeline shrinks to below $50 billion.
Less concerning ifSales pipeline grows back to at least $50 billion.
Why it matters: Improved cash flow shows the company is managing its operations well. This can support growth and stability.
Supportive ifCash from operations goes up each quarter.
Worry ifCash from operations goes down each quarter.
Why it matters: This change may lower earnings for the rest of the year.
Worry ifEarnings per share falls below $7.90 due to the contractual modification.
Less concerning ifEarnings per share is above $8.20. This shows strong performance despite the change.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$129 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $317 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,542 loss on $10,000 · 45.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A change in earnings guidance shows how management views profits. This can affect investor trust.
Worry ifManagement cuts the earnings per share forecast to less than $7.90.
Less concerning ifEarnings guidance remains at or above the current range of $7.90 to $8.20.
Why it matters: Doing the share buyback can show management's confidence. It may help the stock price.
Supportive ifMaximus repurchases at least $100 million worth of shares in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo major share buybacks happen in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is managing income and costs. This can impact investor confidence.
Watch forThe earnings report shows growth in operating income from last quarter.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows a drop in operating income from last quarter.
Why it matters: This buyback program shows that management believes in the company's value. It helps the share price.
Supportive ifCompletion of the $400 million share repurchase program by the end of fiscal year 2026.
Worry ifThe program is not finished or is underfunded by the end of fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: A share buyback program can signal management's confidence in the company's future. It may also support the stock price.
Supportive ifThe company announced a share buyback program with a set dollar amount.
Worry ifNo announcement of a buyback program by the next earnings date.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating the EPS guidance shows strong performance. This may help investor confidence.
Supportive ifAdjusted diluted earnings per share for Q3 lands between $8.25 and $8.55.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted earnings per share falls below $8.25.
Why it matters: An increase in earnings guidance shows strong business performance and investor confidence. It may lead to positive market reactions.
Supportive ifAdjusted diluted earnings per share guidance raised to between $8.25 and $8.55.
Worry ifGuidance remains unchanged or is lowered from the current range.
Why it matters: Stable margins mean the company manages costs well. This shows how well it operates.
Supportive ifOperating margin stays above 12.5% in the next quarter.
Worry ifIf operating margin drops below 12%, it may mean there are cost management issues.
Why it matters: A growing pipeline shows good future revenue. It shows demand for services.
Supportive ifSales pipeline was above $56.8 billion in the next quarter.
Worry ifSales pipeline was below $56.8 billion in the next quarter.
Why it matters: More cash flow means better efficiency and financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations goes above $200 million.
Worry ifCash from operations stays under $200 million.
Why it matters: Progress on the buyback program shows that management believes in the company's value and growth.
Supportive ifThey announced share repurchases of over $100 million for the next quarter.
Worry ifNo major share repurchases were announced for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Big contract wins show that more people need Maximus's services. This shows growth potential.
Supportive ifThey announced new contract awards of over $1 billion for the next quarter.
Worry ifNew contract awards fall below $500 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is key for funding growth and returning capital to shareholders. Changes can impact investor confidence.
Worry ifFree cash flow guidance raised back to $450 million to $500 million for fiscal year 2026.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow guidance lowered again below $425 million to $475 million.
Why it matters: Operating margin guidance shows how well the company is doing in a key area.
Watch forOperating margin guidance for the U.S. Federal Services Segment is now above 17.0%.
Also watch forOperating margin guidance for the U.S. Federal Services Segment is now below 16.5%.