Altria (MO)
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-09-04
$68.88-0.88%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -8.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers
MO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-30
104 The cover page from this Current Report on Form 8-K, formatted in Inline XBRL (included as Exhibit 101) 2 SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. ALTRIA GROUP, INC. By: /s/ MARY C. BIGELOW Name: Mary C. Bigelow Title: Vice President, Corporate Secretary and Associate General Counsel DATE: July 30, 2026 3
Why it matters: The sector is in a mature phase. Any revenue growth could signal a positive shift.
Supportive ifRevenue growth reported above 5% year over year in upcoming quarters.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher lawsuit costs may hurt profits and worry investors.
Worry ifTobacco lawsuit costs in Q3 are over $100 million.
Less concerning ifTobacco litigation costs in Q3 are below $100 million.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show strong cash flow. They also show a commitment to giving value to shareholders.
Supportive ifShare repurchases in Q3 exceed $300 million.
Worry ifShare repurchases in Q3 are below $200 million.
Why it matters: Success in expanding the on! PLUS portfolio can boost Altria's smoke-free product growth.
Supportive ifSales from on! PLUS products grow a lot after the national expansion.
Worry ifSales from on! PLUS products decline or remain flat post-expansion.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$113 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $232 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,639 loss on $10,000 · 16.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in smoke-free products is important for Altria's long-term plans and profits.
Supportive ifSmoke-free product sales grow by more than 5% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifSmoke-free product sales decline or grow less than 5% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Confirming the EPS guidance shows Altria can grow despite challenges. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifManagement confirms 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance. It is between $5.56 and $5.72.
Worry ifManagement lowers the 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance. It is now below $5.56.
Why it matters: Updates on the new CEO's performance will show if the leadership change helps growth.
Watch forGood performance metrics or new plans announced by the new CEO.
Also watch forNegative performance metrics or lack of strategic direction from the new CEO.
Why it matters: Completing the repurchase program shows strong cash flow. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe $2 billion share repurchase program will finish by December 31, 2024.
Worry ifIf the program is not done by the deadline, it shows possible cash flow issues.
Why it matters: A new CEO can change company direction. This could affect growth plans.
Watch forNew CEO announces a strategic plan that focuses on growth.
Also watch forNew CEO maintains the status quo with no new initiatives.
Why it matters: Completing this program would show Altria's commitment to returning cash to shareholders. It may also boost earnings per share by reducing the number of shares outstanding.
Supportive ifAltria will finish the $2.4 billion share buyback by December 31, 2024.
Worry ifThe program is not completed by the end of 2024 or is significantly delayed.
Why it matters: If Q3 EPS growth is below this threshold, it may signal a slowdown in earnings momentum. This could affect investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted diluted EPS growth prints below 3.5% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted diluted EPS growth meets or exceeds 3.5% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: News about the expansion shows how well Altria is growing its smoke-free products.
Supportive ifManagement provides specific details on Helix's on! PLUS expansion to new markets or flavors.
Worry ifNo new details or delays in the planned expansion of on! PLUS.
Why it matters: A drop greater than this could mean worse trends in smokeable products.
Worry ifDomestic cigarette shipment volume drops more than 4% from last quarter.
Less concerning ifCigarette shipment volume drops less than 4% or stays the same.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback show that management trusts the company's value.
Supportive ifManagement finishes or speeds up the $2 billion share buyback program.
Worry ifManagement slows down or cuts the share buyback program.