Altria (MO)
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-07-07
$72.95+1.49%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $72.95. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $73 MO trades at 13× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $82 fair value sits above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $64–$79. Note: our $82 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($64–$79). Not investment advice.
$64.00 – $79.00 (median $75.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $5.02/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $76.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $86.82 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $84.65 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $69.33 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $108.58 | 19.3 | 5.64 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $103.44 | 16.9 | 6.86 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $104.84 | 20.3 | 5.15 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $106.08 | 19.3 | 5.51 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $23.84 | 1.7 | 14.02 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $80.31 | 14.6 | 5.51 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $63.93 | 11.6 | 5.51 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $100.91 | 19.3 | 5.24 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $123.71 | 19.3 | 6.43 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $113.72 | 20.3 | 5.59 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $98.94 | 19.3 | 5.14 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $18.49 | 1.7 | 10.87 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $74.91 | 14.6 | 5.14 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $59.63 | 11.6 | 5.14 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $134.94 | 19.3 | 7.01 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $120.05 | 20.3 | 5.90 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $83.53 | 19.3 | 4.34 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $15.61 | 1.7 | 9.18 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $63.24 | 14.6 | 4.34 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $50.34 | 11.6 | 4.34 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.