Altria (MO)
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-07-07
$72.95+1.49%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Staples: fringe margins under pressure (2q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 1% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks among the strongest in its industry on quality — around the top 16%.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, the balance sheet, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationRelatively steady — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskAltria's focus on nicotine pouches has to keep compounding to justify the price. Revenue grew 3% year over year, and the last quarter beat expectations by 6%. It trades at 13× P/E versus an 18× peer median, indicating that the price reflects less growth than forecasted. A specific risk is that if Altria cuts guidance on the next call, it could lead to a significant negative impact, as the Street tends to walk down estimates. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% above where it trades; this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-07. MO is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 13 analysts currently covering MO (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 6 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for MO in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $72.95. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Tobacco — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Concerns over investment strategy may hinder growth objectives.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-07. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $72.95
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $72.95.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Deliver EPS growth
Increased focus on nicotine pouches supports EPS growth.
Threatens: Deliver EPS growth
Eroding market share poses risk to EPS growth.
Investment in smoke-free products aligns with long-term growth strategy.
Advances: Invest in contract manufacturing capabilities
Focus on smoke-free products aids revenue transition.
Threatens: Share repurchase program
Offloading shares may affect capital allocation strategy.