Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
Modine Manufacturing Co. (MOD)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$98.56-21.43%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
10.64 → 9.80 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MOD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $650M to $680M in fiscal 2027 | The company targets adjusted EBITDA between $650 million and $680 million for the same period. | Under Pressure | adjusted EBITDA falls below $650M in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented business with a multi-year view that depends on sustained revenue expansion and improving profitability. The thesis is currently intact, though earnings quality is fragile, management execution has been volatile, and overall risk is elevated.
MOD is expensive versus peers, and its valuation has risen recently. The evidence labels expectations as unjustified, reflecting the gap between that valuation and weak execution quality; model confidence is low.
Near term, revenue growth is tracking management’s fiscal 2027 guidance, and adjusted EBITDA progress is mixed. The October 1 spin-off and merger with Gentherm was completed, with a cash distribution used to repay debt. A guidance cut on the next call is a meaningful risk, even though the stated near-term miss risk is low.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on MOD maintaining revenue growth guidance and delivering stronger profitability without another guidance cut. Sector signals also matter: continued strength from bellwethers could support the broader backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that tailwind.
Over the 1 to 3 year view, growth and the completed strategic transaction support the thesis, but expensive valuation and fragile execution make delivery the central test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow is expected to remain positive, supporting financial health. |
| Intact |
| free cash flow yield falls below 0% in FY26 |
Free cash flow yield: 1.89% As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 20261.89 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase revenue by 20% to 35% in fiscal 2027 | A primary condition in Modine Manufacturing Co.'s published investment case. The stated target is 20% to 35% increase in revenue. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 20% in FY27 | Revenue: $994.4M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 20% to 35% increase in revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026994,400,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$11.33 → $9.80 · observed estimates
$5.05B → $4.45B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $11.33 | $5,050,896,110 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $11.33 | $5,050,896,110 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $11.33 | $5,050,896,110 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $11.33 | $5,050,896,106 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $11.33 | $5,050,896,110 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $11.33 | $5,051,753,250 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $11.33 | $5,051,753,249 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $11.29 | $5,046,196,106 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $11.29 | $5,046,196,106 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $11.29 | $5,046,196,110 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $11.23 | $5,042,569,240 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $11.23 | $5,042,097,807 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $11.23 | $5,042,097,807 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $11.18 | $5,044,254,950 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $11.18 | $5,044,254,950 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $11.18 | $5,044,254,950 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $11.18 | $5,050,269,240 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $11.18 | $5,050,269,240 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $11.18 | $5,044,254,950 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $11.18 | $5,044,254,950 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $11.18 | $5,044,254,950 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $11.18 | $5,044,254,950 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $11.18 | $5,044,254,950 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $11.18 | $5,044,254,950 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $11.18 | $5,044,254,950 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $11.18 | $5,044,254,950 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $11.18 | $5,050,269,235 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $11.18 | $5,050,269,235 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $11.18 | $5,050,269,235 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $11.18 | $5,050,269,235 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $11.18 | $5,050,269,235 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $11.18 | $5,050,269,235 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $11.18 | $5,050,269,235 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $11.18 | $5,050,269,235 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $11.18 | $5,050,269,235 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $11.18 | $5,051,535,424 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $11.18 | $5,051,535,424 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $11.18 | $5,051,535,424 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $11.18 | $5,051,535,424 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $11.18 | $5,051,535,424 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.93 | $4,966,754,950 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.93 | $4,966,754,950 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $10.93 | $4,966,754,950 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $10.93 | $4,966,754,950 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $10.93 | $4,966,754,950 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $10.93 | $4,966,754,950 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $10.93 | $4,966,754,950 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $10.93 | $4,966,754,950 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $10.93 | $4,966,754,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $10.93 | $4,966,754,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $10.93 | $4,966,754,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $10.93 | $4,966,754,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $10.93 | $4,966,754,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $10.93 | $4,966,754,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $10.93 | $4,966,754,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $10.93 | $4,966,754,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $10.93 | $4,966,754,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $10.93 | $4,966,754,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $10.93 | $4,966,754,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $10.93 | $4,966,754,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $10.94 | $4,967,976,378 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $10.94 | $4,967,976,378 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $10.94 | $4,967,976,378 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $10.94 | $4,967,976,378 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $10.94 | $4,967,976,378 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $10.94 | $4,967,976,378 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $10.94 | $4,967,976,378 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $10.94 | $4,967,976,378 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $10.94 | $4,967,976,378 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $10.94 | $4,967,976,378 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $10.64 | $4,812,004,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $10.64 | $4,812,004,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $10.64 | $4,812,004,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $10.29 | $4,812,019,235 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $10.38 | $4,662,941,831 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $10.38 | $4,662,941,831 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $10.38 | $4,662,941,831 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $10.38 | $4,662,941,831 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $10.38 | $4,662,941,831 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $10.38 | $4,662,941,831 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $10.38 | $4,662,941,831 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $10.38 | $4,662,941,831 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $10.42 | $4,662,941,831 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $10.42 | $4,662,941,831 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $10.42 | $4,662,941,831 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $10.42 | $4,662,941,831 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $10.42 | $4,662,941,831 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.92 | $4,662,941,831 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.10 | $4,662,941,831 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $10.18 | $4,601,726,072 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $10.18 | $4,601,726,072 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $10.18 | $4,601,726,072 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $10.18 | $4,601,726,072 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.18 | $4,601,726,072 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $10.18 | $4,601,726,072 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.99 | $4,467,970,516 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.99 | $4,467,970,516 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.84 | $4,355,048,294 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.84 | $4,355,048,294 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.84 | $4,355,048,294 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.84 | $4,355,048,294 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.84 | $4,355,048,294 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.80 | $4,454,114,961 | 5 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.