Modine Manufacturing Co. (MOD)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$194.66+4.30%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $650M to $680M in fiscal 2027: FY27 EBITDA guidance $650M-$680M vs $650M-$680M target.
Modine aims to grow revenue by 20% to 35% in fiscal 2027. The company targets adjusted EBITDA between $650 million and $680 million for the same period. Free cash flow is expected to remain positive, supporting financial health. Recent earnings beats show operational strength despite market selloff.
Modine's valuation is expensive with a PE of 45.9 versus peers at 16.2. The stock has sold off sharply, down 25% from highs, signaling risk. Management is volatile, and sector headwinds may pressure demand and margins.
The price is about 14% above our fair value near $202, reflecting roughly 31% revenue growth expected by analysts. Our fair value is 41% below the Street median, indicating the market may be pricing in optimistic growth and margin expansion.
Breaks if: adjusted EBITDA falls below $650M in FY27
Breaks if: free cash flow yield falls below 0% in FY26
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 20% in FY27
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue and EBITDA growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings beats and management's commitment to strategic priorities.
The market appears to price in an expensive valuation compared to peers, reflecting a premium. This suggests that investors may expect continued strong performance, but the current fragility in earnings quality could lead to adjustments if results falter.
Management is on track to achieve its revenue and EBITDA targets, indicating a solid operational foundation. However, there is an elevated risk due to recent earnings surprises trending down, which could impact future performance.
Key factors include management's ability to maintain guidance and navigate inflationary pressures. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers will be crucial in determining the overall momentum in the Consumer Discretionary sector.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MOD's performance will depend on execution against its strategic priorities and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the thesis. However, concerns arose about revenue growth despite an increase in sales outlook.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.