Modine Manufacturing Co. (MOD)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$194.66+4.30%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MOD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 89.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 31.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 57.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers
MOD — divestiture
Dated 2026-07-24
Regulation FD Disclosure. Effective April 1, 2026, Modine Manufacturing Company (the “Company”) reorganized its Climate Solutions segment and split it into two separate operating segments: 1) Data Centers and 2) Commercial HVAC. The Company believes that managing these businesses independently will allow it to better deploy its 80/20 strategy focused on capitalizing on growth opportunities, particularly in the Data Centers business, and optimizing profit margins and cash flow. Beginning with…
Why it matters: Keeping positive free cash flow is key for funding growth and managing debt.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported as positive for fiscal 2027.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported as negative for fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Strong growth in this area is key for revenue goals and market share.
Supportive ifData Centers segment sales report growth of 90% or more year-over-year.
Worry ifData Centers sales growth is less than 70% year-over-year.
Why it matters: This growth would support management's target of 20% to 35% revenue growth for fiscal 2027.
Supportive ifNet sales reported at $1.05 billion or higher for Q2.
Worry ifNet sales growth falls below 15% for Q2.
Why it matters: Reaching this EBITDA target shows strong operations. It also shows good financial health.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is $650M or more for fiscal 2027.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is below $650M for fiscal 2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$291 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $768 loss on $10,000 · 7.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,212 loss on $10,000 · 42.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would show that Modine is on track to meet its targets. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifFiscal 2027 revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 revenue growth reported below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: A positive change in sector revenue growth could signal a recovery for Modine.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth turns positive after being negative.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is still negative for another quarter.
Why it matters: This would show that management can reach their fiscal 2027 EBITDA goal.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 is $146 million or more.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $130 million for Q2.
Why it matters: This spin-off is important for Modine's changes and future growth.
Supportive ifCompletion of the spin-off by the end of calendar Q4 2026.
Worry ifDelay in the spin-off announcement or failure to meet the timeline.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow is important for funding growth and staying healthy financially.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported as positive for Q2.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains negative for Q2.