Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Molina Healthcare (MOH)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-05
$216.64-4.32%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.72 → 9.69 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MOH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
adjusted earnings of at least $5.00 per diluted share in 2026 | The company expects adjusted earnings of at least $5.00 per share. | Intact | adjusted EPS falls below $4.50 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a managed-care business with a cyclical element, meaning results can be affected by economic conditions and medical costs. The long-term thesis is intact, and recent performance has strengthened, but earnings quality and management execution remain mixed.
MOH is described as expensive versus peers, with a 7% premium, though the valuation model has low confidence. The expectations gap is close to neutral, so the evidence does not point to unusually high expectations being built in; priced-in fragility is rated low.
Near-term results show strength, including two recent earnings beats and a rise in company momentum. However, the medical cost ratio rose from 91.1% in Q1 to 92.9% in Q3 2026, while adjusted earnings fell from $2.35 to $0.89 per diluted share; guidance was raised and operating cost measures improved. The near-term miss risk is rated low, but weakening jobs data, a history of a deep miss, and declining earnings surprises remain risks.
Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether MOH can control medical costs while maintaining its raised full-year earnings guidance. A guidance cut after a recent raise would damage credibility, while continued weakness in jobs data could pressure the sector. Continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers would support the broader Healthcare backdrop.
For the 1-to-3-year view, MOH’s recent operating strength keeps the long-term thesis intact, but rising medical costs and an expensive valuation versus peers leave meaningful execution risk. The thesis depends on cost control and delivery against guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Molina Healthcare's published investment case. The stated target is sustain or improve current medical cost ratios. |
| Intact |
| medical cost ratios worsen materially over next 4 quarters |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
premium revenue of approximately $42 billion in 2026 | It aims for about $42 billion in premium revenue in 2026. | Under Pressure | premium revenue falls below $41 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 5 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• The Company reaffirmed its full year 2026 guidance of expected premium revenue of approximately $42 billion and adjusted earnings of at least $5.25 per diluted share.” “• The Company increased its full year 2026 adjusted earnings guidance by $0.25 to at least $5.25 per diluted share.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.99 → $9.69 · observed estimates
$47.56B → $47.46B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.99 | $47,558,352,800 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-07-25 | $8.55 | $48,093,075,520 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-07-26 | $8.55 | $48,093,075,520 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-07-27 | $9.58 | $48,482,154,731 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $8.55 | $48,090,927,260 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $8.55 | $48,081,570,120 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-07-30 | $8.55 | $48,081,570,120 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $8.55 | $48,081,570,120 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.76 | $48,202,713,446 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $8.55 | $48,081,570,120 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $8.55 | $48,081,570,120 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $8.55 | $48,081,570,120 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $9.76 | $48,202,713,446 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $8.55 | $48,081,570,120 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-07 | $9.76 | $48,202,713,446 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.76 | $48,202,713,446 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $8.55 | $48,081,570,120 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $8.55 | $48,081,570,120 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $9.76 | $48,202,713,446 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.76 | $48,202,713,446 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.76 | $48,202,713,446 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.76 | $48,202,713,446 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.76 | $48,202,713,446 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.76 | $48,202,713,446 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.76 | $48,202,713,446 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.76 | $48,202,713,446 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.72 | $48,202,668,046 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.72 | $48,202,637,254 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.72 | $48,202,637,254 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.72 | $48,202,637,254 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.72 | $48,202,637,254 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.72 | $48,202,637,254 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.72 | $48,202,637,254 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.72 | $48,202,637,254 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.72 | $48,202,637,254 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $9.72 | $48,202,604,620 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $9.72 | $48,025,071,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $9.72 | $48,025,071,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $9.72 | $48,025,071,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $9.72 | $48,025,071,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $9.72 | $48,025,071,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $9.72 | $48,025,071,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $9.72 | $48,025,071,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.72 | $48,025,071,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.72 | $48,025,071,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.72 | $48,025,071,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.72 | $48,025,071,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.72 | $48,025,071,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.72 | $48,025,071,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.72 | $48,025,071,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.72 | $48,025,071,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.72 | $48,025,071,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.72 | $48,025,071,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.72 | $48,025,071,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.72 | $48,039,471,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.72 | $48,039,471,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.72 | $48,039,471,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.72 | $48,039,471,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.72 | $48,039,471,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.72 | $48,039,471,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.72 | $48,039,471,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.72 | $48,039,471,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.72 | $48,039,471,287 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.72 | $48,039,471,255 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.62 | $47,458,548,469 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.59 | $47,599,243,470 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.59 | $47,599,243,470 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.59 | $47,599,243,470 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.59 | $47,599,243,470 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.56 | $47,513,207,596 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.56 | $47,513,207,596 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.69 | $47,459,973,563 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.69 | $47,459,973,563 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.69 | $47,459,973,563 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.69 | $47,459,973,563 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.69 | $47,459,973,563 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.69 | $47,459,973,563 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-11-05 | $9.69 | $47,459,973,563 | 6 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 5 recorded
4 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.