Molina Healthcare (MOH)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
$200.80-1.04%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MOH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 6.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
MOH — litigation filed
Dated 2026-05-08
Regulation FD Disclosure. As previously announced, Molina Healthcare, Inc. (the “Company”) will host its Investor Day Conference on May 8, 2026, beginning at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time. At the event, the Company will provide various updates regarding its business, including on its long-term financial targets and strategic and operational plans. A copy of the Investor Day presentation materials is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. A live webcast of the Company’s…
Why it matters: An increase shows that management believes they can make more money and control costs.
Supportive ifManagement raises the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to over $5.25 per share.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance.
Why it matters: A larger drop shows ongoing problems with membership and steady revenue.
Worry ifQ3 premium revenue down year over year worse than -6%.
Less concerning ifQ3 premium revenue declines less than 6% YoY or grows.
Why it matters: A lower adjusted EPS shows ongoing profit problems. This can affect investor trust.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EPS prints below $1.51.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EPS exceeds $1.51.
Why it matters: Better MCR would show improved cost management. It could also lead to margin recovery.
Supportive ifMedicaid MCR improves below 92.0% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifMedicaid MCR remains above 92.7% in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $406 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,966 loss on $10,000 · 39.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Finalization would secure a key revenue stream and support future growth plans.
Supportive ifThe Illinois Medicaid contract is finalized. It starts on January 1, 2027.
Worry ifDelays or issues arise that postpone the start of the Illinois Medicaid contract.
Why it matters: This guidance shows Molina can keep revenue steady even with market challenges.
Watch forMolina says it expects to make about $42 billion in premium revenue for 2026.
Also watch forMolina now expects to make less than $42 billion in premium revenue for 2026.
Why it matters: This guidance shows Molina believes future earnings will improve. It changes how the market sees them.
Supportive ifMolina says adjusted earnings guidance stays the same in the next earnings report.
Worry ifMolina cuts its earnings guidance for the next report.
Why it matters: A higher MCR means rising medical costs. This can hurt margins and profits.
Worry ifQ3 consolidated MCR is over 92.7%.
Less concerning ifQ3 consolidated MCR stays below 92.7%.