Molina Healthcare (MOH)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-05
$216.64-4.32%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MOH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MOH — litigation filed
Dated 2026-05-08
Regulation FD Disclosure. As previously announced, Molina Healthcare, Inc. (the “Company”) will host its Investor Day Conference on May 8, 2026, beginning at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time. At the event, the Company will provide various updates regarding its business, including on its long-term financial targets and strategic and operational plans. A copy of the Investor Day presentation materials is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. A live webcast of the Company’s…
Why it matters: The company reaffirmed this floor after raising it from $5.00 in Q2. Missing it would break the current guidance.
Watch forFull-year 2026 adjusted earnings are at least $5.25 per diluted share.
Also watch forFull-year 2026 adjusted earnings are below $5.25 per diluted share.
Why it matters: Molina kept its $42 billion revenue outlook while Q3 premium revenue fell 4% year over year. The full-year result tests that outlook.
Watch forFull-year 2026 premium revenue is near the guided $42 billion.
Also watch forFull-year 2026 premium revenue falls materially short of $42 billion.
Why it matters: Management includes a $1.50-per-share loss from the contract in 2026 guidance. The reported loss will test that estimate.
Watch forQ4 results show a loss near the guided $1.50 per share from the Florida contract.
Also watch forThe Florida contract loss is absent or materially above $1.50 per share.
Why it matters: A lower MCR would support management's view that medical cost trends have steadied. A higher rate would show more cost pressure.
Watch forQ4 consolidated MCR is below Q3's 92.9%.
Also watch forQ4 consolidated MCR is above Q3's 92.9%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$157 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $362 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,925 loss on $10,000 · 39.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.