Mosaic Company (The) (MOS)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$21.13-0.26%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $21.13. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $21 MOS trades at 10× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median. Our $35 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits above the analyst range and the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $22–$33. Note: our $35 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($22–$33). Not investment advice.
$22.00 – $33.00 (median $26.00) · 12 analysts · as of 2026-06-30
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $1.54/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $26.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $41.88 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $118.47 | 23.5 | 5.04 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $57.62 | 14.3 | 5.19 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $48.66 | 23.5 | 2.07 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $82.10 | 2.1 | 39.15 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $32.32 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $21.51 | 10.4 | 2.07 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $45.63 | 23.5 | 1.94 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $100.01 | 23.5 | 4.25 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $120.78 | 23.5 | 5.14 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $85.22 | 2.1 | 40.64 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $53.39 | 10.4 | 5.14 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $89.33 | 23.5 | 3.80 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $123.75 | 23.5 | 5.26 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $87.31 | 2.1 | 41.64 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $54.71 | 10.4 | 5.26 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.