Mosaic Company (The) (MOS)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$25.85+1.41%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MOS
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $26 MOS trades at 18× p/e, in line with its 18× p/e peer median, and our $26 fair value agrees. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $22–$31. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $25.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $34.44 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $33.60 | 12.3 | 4.16 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $19.19 | 15.6 | 1.23 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$22.00 – $31.00 (median $25.50) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-08-05
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $57.62 |
| 1.5 |
| 38.63 |
| TTM |
| high |
| PEG | 12M | $21.21 | 14.7 | 1.44 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $28.93 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $24.18 | 17.9 | 1.35 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $82.06 | 15.6 | 5.24 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $61.78 | 1.5 | 41.41 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $77.24 | 14.7 | 5.24 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $85.87 | 15.6 | 5.49 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $64.65 | 1.5 | 43.34 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $80.83 | 14.7 | 5.49 | Analyst | medium |