Mosaic Company (The) (MOS)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$25.85+1.41%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Mosaic is a cheap fertilizer producer with a price-to-earnings ratio near 10. The company aims to keep capital spending at $1.25 billion in 2026. Phosphate sales volumes target a recovery to 1.7-1.9 million tonnes in Q1 2026. Idling some Brazil complexes should reduce costs and improve margins.
Mosaic has missed earnings multiple times recently, including a 85% EPS miss in Q1 2026. The company faces headwinds from idling key mining complexes in Brazil. Revenue growth is expected to be weak at about 1%. Free cash flow remains negative, signaling financial stress.
The stock trades about 40% below our fair value near $36, reflecting cautious market expectations. Analysts forecast only about 1% revenue growth next year. Our fair value is well above the Street median, indicating some upside if the company recovers.
Breaks if: capital expenditures exceed $1.3 billion in 2026
Breaks if: idling plan is reversed or delayed beyond 2026-Q2
phosphate sales volume falls below 1.7 million tonnes in Q1 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on recovering sales volumes and managing capital expenditures. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent financial performance has been weak and the company is under watch due to potential earnings misses.
The market appears to have a low expectations gap, indicating that current valuations are justified given the company's recent performance. There is a slight premium compared to peers, suggesting that investors are not overly optimistic about immediate growth prospects.
Fundamentals are likely to remain mixed in the near term, as management aims to recover phosphate sales volumes while navigating recent operational challenges. The company's recent earnings surprises have been erratic, contributing to a heightened risk of missing future guidance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat strengthens the read on MOS. However, high sulfur costs threaten earnings and capital allocation, impacting future performance.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
The thesis hinges on key factors such as management's ability to maintain capital discipline, the impact of inflation on the materials sector, and the performance of sector peers like CTVA, CF, and SMG. Any cuts in guidance could significantly affect sentiment and performance.
In the 1 to 3 year view, MOS faces challenges but has potential if management can execute effectively and external conditions align favorably. Not investment advice.