Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Mosaic Company (The) (MOS)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$21.62+17.37%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.48 → 1.42 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MOS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain capital expenditures at $1.25 billion in 2026 | The company aims to keep capital spending at $1.25 billion in 2026. | Intact | capital expenditures exceed $1.3 billion in 2026 | Capital expenditures: $320.3M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 1250 USD millions. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 5, 2026320,300,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical materials business, meaning results can move with industry conditions, alongside company-specific execution risks. Its long-term thesis remains intact but under watch, with recent financial performance weak and confidence medium.
The valuation evidence is mixed: MOS is tagged as cheap versus peers, while another measure shows a premium to peers, so the overall value view is neutral. The priced-in assessment is marked justified with low fragility, but the negative expectations gap suggests the market setup does not leave much room for disappointment.
Near term, results face risk after recent misses, and the evidence estimates a 41% chance of a miss next quarter. Management has reduced 2026 capital spending plans to about $1.2 billion, but phosphate volumes and the idling of Araxá and Patrocínio assets show mixed progress. A CEO transition and a recent legal or regulatory event add uncertainty.
The next call is a key near-term test: a guidance cut would add to concerns, while delivery on phosphate volumes and asset changes would show progress. Over the multi-year view, the sector backdrop depends partly on whether CF, CTVA, and SMG continue to report strong results and guidance or begin to weaken.
The 1-to-3-year read is a mixed setup: sector support and capital discipline are offset by weak execution, elevated risk, and uncertain near-term results. The thesis hinges on operational progress and whether the sector tailwind persists. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Capital Allocation Update • Capital expenditures in 2026 are now expected to be $1.20 billion, down from the previous expectation of $1.25 billion.” “For 2027, Mosaic is targeting capital expenditures below $1 billion.”
Idling Araxá and Patrocínio complexes in Brazil | Idling some Brazil complexes should reduce costs and improve margins. | Intact | idling plan is reversed or delayed beyond 2026-Q2 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Recover phosphate sales volumes to 1.7-1.9 million tonnes in Q1 2026 | Phosphate sales volumes target a recovery to 1.7-1.9 million tonnes in Q1 2026. | Intact | phosphate sales volume falls below 1.7 million tonnes in Q1 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.85 → $1.42 · observed estimates
$12.67B → $13.10B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.85 | $12,668,677,116 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.82 | $12,717,441,760 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.82 | $12,717,441,760 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.85 | $12,668,677,116 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.80 | $12,691,566,004 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.78 | $12,748,821,200 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.78 | $12,748,821,200 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.81 | $12,724,677,116 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.81 | $12,724,677,116 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.82 | $12,748,821,200 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.82 | $12,748,821,200 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.81 | $12,724,677,116 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.81 | $12,724,677,116 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.82 | $12,748,821,200 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.70 | $12,683,680,675 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.70 | $12,683,680,675 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.69 | $12,690,124,650 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.70 | $12,683,680,675 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.68 | $12,697,824,710 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.70 | $12,683,680,675 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.70 | $12,683,680,675 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.70 | $12,683,680,675 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.70 | $12,683,680,675 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.70 | $12,683,680,675 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.70 | $12,683,680,675 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.70 | $12,683,680,675 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.53 | $12,644,424,896 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.53 | $12,644,424,896 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.53 | $12,644,424,896 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.53 | $12,644,424,896 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.53 | $12,644,424,896 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.55 | $12,698,038,125 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.55 | $12,698,038,125 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.55 | $12,698,038,125 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.55 | $12,698,038,125 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.55 | $12,698,038,125 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.55 | $12,698,038,125 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.55 | $12,698,038,125 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.55 | $12,698,038,125 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.55 | $12,698,038,125 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.55 | $12,698,038,125 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.55 | $12,698,038,125 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.55 | $12,698,038,125 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.55 | $12,698,038,125 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.55 | $12,698,038,125 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.55 | $12,698,038,125 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.49 | $12,619,290,508 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.49 | $12,619,290,508 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.49 | $12,619,290,508 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.51 | $12,674,449,890 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.51 | $12,674,449,890 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.51 | $12,674,449,890 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.51 | $12,674,449,890 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.51 | $12,674,449,890 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.51 | $12,674,449,890 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.51 | $12,674,449,890 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.51 | $12,674,449,890 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.51 | $12,674,454,644 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.51 | $12,674,454,644 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.46 | $12,820,670,559 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.46 | $12,820,686,615 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.46 | $12,820,686,615 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.46 | $12,820,686,615 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.46 | $12,820,686,615 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.46 | $12,820,686,615 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.46 | $12,820,686,615 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.48 | $12,955,426,663 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.48 | $12,955,426,663 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.48 | $12,955,426,663 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.48 | $12,955,426,663 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.48 | $12,955,426,663 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.48 | $12,955,426,663 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.48 | $12,955,426,663 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.47 | $12,924,176,663 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.47 | $12,950,445,051 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.47 | $12,950,445,051 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.46 | $13,015,805,293 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.46 | $13,015,805,293 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.46 | $13,015,805,293 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.46 | $13,015,805,293 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.46 | $13,015,805,293 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.45 | $13,015,805,293 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.45 | $13,015,805,293 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.41 | $13,015,805,293 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.41 | $13,015,805,293 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.41 | $13,015,805,293 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.41 | $13,015,805,293 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.44 | $13,013,545,989 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.44 | $13,013,545,989 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.42 | $13,002,953,437 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.41 | $13,017,765,937 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.41 | $13,076,113,020 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.41 | $13,076,113,020 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.41 | $13,076,113,020 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.41 | $13,076,113,020 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.43 | $13,095,355,852 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.43 | $13,095,355,852 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.43 | $13,095,355,852 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.43 | $13,095,355,852 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.43 | $13,095,355,852 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.43 | $13,095,355,852 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.43 | $13,095,371,909 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.42 | $13,095,440,659 | 10 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.