Mosaic Company (The) (MOS)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$21.62+17.37%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MOS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MOS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The following information is being “furnished” in accordance with General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act,…
Why it matters: Mosaic forecast better cash flow from lower capital spending and a Brazil working-capital release. Positive cash flow would show that plan is taking hold.
Supportive ifMosaic reports positive free cash flow for Q3 or Q4. It cites lower capital spending or cash freed up from working capital.
Worry ifFree cash flow stays negative in both Q3 and Q4, with no reported Brazil working-capital release.
Why it matters: Mosaic has idled these Brazil assets and is pursuing strategic options. A deal could show progress; continued losses would point to a longer drag.
Watch forMosaic names a buyer, signs a sale deal for Araxá, or reports a concrete niobium plan for Patrocínio.
Also watch forMosaic reports no deal or plan and keeps booking costs tied to the idled assets.
Why it matters: Mosaic settled Q3 sulfur contracts at $705 per long ton. Those costs are set to reach results in Q4, while plants are running at reduced rates.
Worry ifMosaic reports Q4 sulfur costs near or above $705 per long ton and phosphate conversion costs above $129 per tonne.
Less concerning ifQ4 sulfur costs are below $705 per long ton, or phosphate conversion costs fall below $129 per tonne.
Why it matters: Mosaic guided to 1.1–1.4 million tonnes for Q3. Higher sales would show it can meet demand despite production cuts.
Supportive ifIn the Nov. 3 results, Q3 phosphate sales are at least 1.1 million tonnes.
Worry ifQ3 phosphate sales fall below 1.1 million tonnes, the low end of guidance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$176 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $499 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,493 loss on $10,000 · 44.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Mosaic kept its 9 million tonne goal as production shifts to the second half. Results will show whether higher Esterhazy output can offset the Carlsbad sale.
Supportive ifMosaic reports or confirms about 9 million tonnes of potash made in full-year 2026.
Worry ifMosaic cuts its 2026 potash production outlook to below 9 million tonnes or reports a clear shortfall.