Mosaic Company (The) (MOS)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$25.85+1.41%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MOS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -0.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MOS — legal / regulatory event — Triggering Events that Accelerate or Increase a Direct Financial Obligation o…
Dated 2026-08-28
Triggering Events that Accelerate or Increase a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement. On August 28, 2026, The Mosaic Company (the “Company”) issued notices of redemption for (x) all $304,897,000 aggregate principal amount outstanding of its 4.050% Senior Notes due 2027 (the “2027 Notes”) and (y) all $124,122,000 aggregate principal amount outstanding of its 5.375% Senior Notes due 2028 (the “2028 Notes” and together with the 2027 Notes, the “Note…
Why it matters: Keeping capital spending at this level shows Mosaic's focus on money and growth.
Supportive ifCapital spending is at or below $1.2 billion for 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending is over $1.2 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: Higher sulfur prices can raise production costs and hurt margins.
Worry ifMosaic reports sulfur costs averaging above $500 per tonne in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifSulfur costs stabilize below $500 per tonne in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Idling these facilities could reduce phosphate production by 1 million tonnes. This affects costs and revenue.
Worry ifMosaic reports phosphate production is down by about 1 million tonnes due to idling.
Less concerning ifPhosphate production stays the same or goes up even with idling.
Why it matters: High raw material costs can limit production and reduce profits.
Worry ifPhosphate production guidance remains withdrawn due to high raw material costs.
Less concerning ifRaw material costs stabilize or drop. This allows production guidance to return.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$177 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $487 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,388 loss on $10,000 · 43.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Reaching this production level shows Mosaic's efficiency and the need for potash.
Supportive ifPotash production reported at or near 9 million tonnes for 2026.
Worry ifPotash production is below 8 million tonnes for 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on these facilities will show how they affect production and costs.
Watch forMosaic confirms the completion of idling and outlines future plans for the assets.
Also watch forMosaic announces delays or problems with the idling process.
Why it matters: Rising phosphate sales volumes show better demand and stable operations. This is key for Mosaic's revenue.
Supportive ifPhosphate sales volumes reach or exceed 1.4 million tonnes in Q3 2026.
Worry ifPhosphate sales volumes fall below 1.1 million tonnes in Q3 2026.