MOS
Mosaic Company (The)NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, MOS has a composite score of 0.5, indicating a mixed analyst signal. The score is influenced by various factors, including a macro score of 13.5 and a momentum score of -38.5, reflecting elevated market risk. The overall confidence in this assessment is medium at 75.9%. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.70
- Slope (norm)-0.37
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.34 → $0.32 (-7.3% / 30d). 2 raised, 4 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 35% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.7% above current price.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
5 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2026-04-08MOS — strategy / product update — Material Impairmentsimpact 0.28
- 2025-01-13MOS — CEO transitionimpact 0.22
- 2025-05-21MOS — credit agreementimpact 0.15
- 2025-05-21MOS — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…impact 0.12
- 2024-08-28MOS — President transitionimpact 0.10
Stated priorities
Insufficient transcript history for this ticker.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 33%; 252d 43%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −40%. Bad day move −5%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLB) — 0.08 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 29/100, drawdown 20/100, beta 8/100, earnings vol —.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
62 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MOS Mosaic Company (The) | +0.5 | fair | elevated |
LIN Linde plc | +24 | inexpensive | moderate |
NEM Newmont | +17 | inexpensive | elevated |
FCX Freeport-McMoRan | +6.4 | — | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | +18 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If materials sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-02-24)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-02-24)-8.0 pts
- If materials sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-3.5 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-081mo agoItem 2.06
Material Impairments. On April 8, 2026, The Mosaic Company (the "Company") announced that it will begin the process of idling and demobilizing its Araxá Mining and Chemical Complex and idling related mining activities at the Patrocínio Complex in Brazil. (the "Araxá Idling"). The Company currently anticipates recording a pre-tax book impact of $350 to $400 million in the first quarter of 2026 with $275 to $300 million for the impairment on assets held for sale and other asset writeoffs and th…
product or strategy shiftnegativescore 30 - 2026-02-242mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The following information is being “furnished” in accordance with General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act,…
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 15 - 2025-05-2111mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 16, 2025 (the “Effective Date”), The Mosaic Company (“Mosaic”) entered into an Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Amended and Restated Credit Agreement”) with Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent, and the lenders party thereto, pursuant to which Mosaic’s existing Credit Agreement, dated as of August 19, 2021 (as amended by that certain First Amendment to Credit Agreement, dated as of May 10, 2023 and as further amended prio…
capital allocationneutralscore 0 - 2025-05-2111mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The Amended and Restated Credit Agreement provides for, among other things, an unsecured revolving credit facility (the “Mosaic Credit Facility”) in an aggregate principal amount of up to $2,500,000,000 and extends the maturity of the Mosaic Credit Facility from August 19, 2026 to May 16, 2030. Compared to the Existing Credit Agreement, the Amended and Restated Credit Agreement:…
capital allocationnegativescore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.