Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Movado Group, Inc. (MOV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$31.19-4.94%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.33 → 2.33 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MOV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend of $0.35 per share maintained | Dividends stay steady at $0.35 per share, showing stable capital returns. | Intact | Dividend cut below $0.35 per share next year | Dividend per share: $0.40 per share FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.35 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 26, 20260.4 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented consumer discretionary business, with recent results showing stronger sales and margins. The multi-year view is intact, but confidence has eased to medium and earnings quality remains fragile.
MOV is expensive versus peers, with a 1.12 premium, and the expectations gap is negative. The pricing assessment is labeled justified, with low fragility in what is already priced in, rather than evidence that the full set of risks is being ignored.
Near-term, management’s stated focus on brand innovation, customer engagement, and operating income has been accompanied by rising revenue, gross margin, and operating income across the reported quarters. The dividend also increased, though erratic earnings surprises and smaller-company risk remain concerns, and the next guidance update is an important watchpoint.
The multi-year thesis hinges on whether growth and margin improvement continue while management sustains profitable execution. Near-term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MOV’s improving operating results support an intact thesis, but fragile earnings quality and an expensive peer valuation make sustained execution important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Movado Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 54%. |
| Intact |
| Gross margin falls below 50% in FY25 |
Gross margin: 59.4% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 54%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 26, 202659.395471 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income stability near $7 million | Revenue is expected near $653 million in fiscal 2025. | Intact | Operating income falls below $5 million next year | Operating income: $14.878M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $7 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 26, 202614,878,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted operating income was $15.1 million, or 8.9% of net sales, compared to $7.0 million, or 4.3% of net sales, in the second quarter of fiscal 2026.” “As a percentage of net sales, operating expenses decreased to 50.6% of net sales from 51.6% in the prior-year period primarily due to leverage of expenses given the increase in net sales.” Operating income was $14.878 million in 2027-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue near $653 million in fiscal 2025 | Revenue is expected near $653 million in fiscal 2025. | Intact | Revenue falls below $600 million in FY25 | Revenue: $169.752M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $653 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 26, 2026169,752,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.31 → $2.33 · observed estimates
$0.70B → $0.74B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.31 | $699,131,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.31 | $699,131,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.31 | $699,131,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.31 | $699,131,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.31 | $699,131,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.28 | $709,173,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.30 | $718,426,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.30 | $718,426,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.30 | $718,426,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.30 | $718,426,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.30 | $718,426,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.33 | $739,260,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.33 | $739,257,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.33 | $739,257,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.33 | $739,257,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.33 | $739,257,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.33 | $739,257,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.33 | $739,257,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.33 | $739,257,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.33 | $739,257,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.33 | $739,257,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.33 | $739,257,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.33 | $739,257,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.33 | $739,257,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.33 | $739,257,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.33 | $739,257,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.33 | $739,257,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.33 | $739,257,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.33 | $739,257,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.33 | $739,257,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.33 | $739,257,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.33 | $739,257,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.33 | $739,257,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.33 | $739,257,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.33 | $739,257,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.33 | $739,257,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.33 | $739,257,500 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.