Movado Group, Inc. (MOV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$33.97+1.01%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MOV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MOV — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-16
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 16, 2026, Movado Group, Inc. (the “Company”), together with Movado Group Delaware Holdings Corporation, Movado Retail Group, Inc. and Movado LLC (together with the Company, the “U.S. Borrowers”), each a wholly owned domestic subsidiary of the Company, MGI Luxury Group GmbH (the “Swiss Borrower” and, together with the U.S. Borrowers, the “Borrowers”), a wholly owned Swiss subsidiary of the Company, and Movado Group Nederland B.V., a wholly ow…
Why it matters: Higher refunds would improve cash flow and support future investments.
Supportive ifTotal IEEPA duty refunds are over $10 million.
Worry ifTotal IEEPA duty refunds are under $10 million.
Why it matters: Operating income shows how profitable a company is. If it drops below this level, it may mean there are problems.
Worry ifOperating income was less than $14.9 million.
Less concerning ifOperating income was more than $14.9 million.
Why it matters: This growth rate indicates if Movado can maintain its sales momentum. A drop below this level may signal weakening demand.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth prints below 4.5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales growth exceeds 4.5% year over year.
Why it matters: The margin improvement shows how well Movado is managing costs and pricing. A lower improvement could signal rising costs or pricing pressure.
Worry ifGross margin improvement is less than 340 basis points compared to the prior year.
Less concerning ifGross margin improvement exceeds 340 basis points compared to the prior year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$147 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $321 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,546 loss on $10,000 · 15.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A dividend increase would show strong finances and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a dividend higher than $0.40 per share.
Worry ifThe Board maintains or lowers the dividend at $0.40 per share.
Why it matters: If the dividend goes up, it shows strong finances. It also shows a commitment to giving value to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board announces a dividend increase above $0.40 per share.
Worry ifThe Board maintains the dividend at $0.40 per share or lowers it.
Why it matters: Extending this agreement could boost sales and brand visibility. It is a key part of Movado's growth strategy.
Supportive ifLook for news about the Calvin Klein license agreement being extended or renewed.
Worry ifIf the Calvin Klein license agreement is not extended, it may mean sales problems.
Why it matters: Sales in the Middle East have declined. This could affect overall revenue growth.
Worry ifSales in the Middle East stabilize or grow in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifSales in the Middle East decline further in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength. It also helps attract more investors.
Supportive ifA public statement confirming the dividend will remain at $0.35 per share.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a dividend cut or reduction from the current $0.35 per share.
Why it matters: Steady operating income is key for investor trust. It shows financial strength.
Watch forOperating income stays above $7 million in Q2.
Also watch forOperating income falls below $7 million in Q2.