Movado Group, Inc. (MOV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$31.19-4.94%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MOV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 0 industry peers
MOV — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-16
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 16, 2026, Movado Group, Inc. (the “Company”), together with Movado Group Delaware Holdings Corporation, Movado Retail Group, Inc. and Movado LLC (together with the Company, the “U.S. Borrowers”), each a wholly owned domestic subsidiary of the Company, MGI Luxury Group GmbH (the “Swiss Borrower” and, together with the U.S. Borrowers, the “Borrowers”), a wholly owned Swiss subsidiary of the Company, and Movado Group Nederland B.V., a wholly ow…
Why it matters: Movado said it is seeking about $10 million in refunds. More cash back could help results, but the Q2 refund already lifted profit.
Watch forA company filing or earnings report confirms more refunds. The total rises above $3.3 million.
Also watch forA company filing or earnings report says no more refunds came in, or the claim for the rest was denied.
Why it matters: Q2 margin was 57.5% without the duty refund. A higher margin would show that product and channel mix gains remain in place.
Supportive ifQ3 gross margin, after removing any duty refunds, is above 57.5%.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin, without duty refunds, falls below 54.1%, the year-ago Q2 rate.
Why it matters: The sale would bring $66.5 million and leave Movado with 5% of EBEL. Closing would also let Movado focus more on its other brands.
Supportive ifMovado files or announces that it closed the sale of 95% of EBEL. The announced price was $66.5 million, subject to final adjustments.
Worry ifMovado announces that the sale ended, failed to close, or the buyer group changed.
Why it matters: Q2 sales grew 4.4% in constant dollars. Another gain above that level would show demand is still growing without currency help.
Supportive ifIn the November 24 report, Q3 sales growth in constant dollars is above 4.4% year over year.
Worry ifIn the November 24 report, Q3 sales are flat or down in constant dollars year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$107 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $306 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,217 loss on $10,000 · 22.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.