Marathon Petroleum (MPC)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$377.32-3.91%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MPC
How strong the business is — where it ranks within its sector on capital efficiency and cash generation, and how well management has been executing.
How this business ranks within energy on a research-validated quality screen. As of 2026-11-05.
The screen ranks MPC against its sector on four durable signals: share dilution, return on capital, free-cash-flow yield, and FCF margin. Historically the highest-quality names tended toward better typical outcomes and fewer bad years over multi-year holds (strongest at three years, modest at one), and that pattern showed up even before the price moved. It characterizes business quality, not price direction.
Each leg is a sector-relative percentile (higher is better); 4 of 4 legs were available for this name. The composite is built from these four; the raw value follows each percentile for context.
A forward quality tilt, not a price prediction, and context for your own research rather than a recommendation. Not investment advice.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated strong grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=1774).
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
MPC’s outlook includes high-return investments at its Galveston Bay, Robinson, El Paso, and Garyville refineries.
Stated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “MPC will receive $3.45 billion of the proceeds and intends to reinvest this capital prioritizing opportunities that meet the company’s return thresholds and advance its strategic priorities, primarily in the Gulf Coast.” “MPC’s outlook includes high-return investments at its Galveston Bay, Robinson, El Paso, and Garyville refineries.” Operating income was $10.450 billion in 2026-Q3.
“MPC’s outlook includes high-return investments at its Galveston Bay, Robinson, El Paso, and Garyville refineries.”
“MPC’s outlook includes high-return investments at its Galveston Bay, Robinson, El Paso, and Garyville refineries.”
“MPC’s outlook includes high-return investments at its Galveston Bay, Robinson, El Paso, and Garyville refineries.”
“MPC’s 2026 capital spending outlook includes continued high-return investments at its Galveston Bay, Robinson, El Paso, and Garyville refineries.”
“Strategic Update MPC’s Refining & Marketing 2025 capital spending outlook includes continued high-return investments at its Los Angeles, Galveston Bay and Robinson refineries.”
“2 Strategic Update MPC’s Refining & Marketing 2025 capital spending outlook includes continued high-return investments at its Los Angeles, Galveston Bay and Robinson refineries.”
MPLX’s durable growth and increasing cash flow to MPC delivers a differentiated value proposition.”
Stated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “With projects concentrated in the Permian and Marcellus, two of the most prolific and competitive basins in North America, investments in these value chains reflect MPLX's confidence in the long-term fundamentals of the energy market, offer 3 some of the most compelling investments in the midstream sector, and are expected to generate mid-teens returns.” “This compares to adjusted net income of $915 million, or $3.01 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2025.”
This compares with a net income attributable to MPC of $1.4 billion, or $4.51 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2025.
Stated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “This compares with a net income attributable to MPC of $1.4 billion, or $4.51 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2025.” “This compares to adjusted net income of $915 million, or $3.01 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2025.”
“This compares with a net income attributable to MPC of $1.4 billion, or $4.51 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2025.”
Continue high-return investments at Galveston Bay, Robinson, El Paso, and Garyville refineries, focusing 65% on value-enhancing and 35% on sustaining capital in 2026.
Increase MPLX growth capital spending to $2.9 billion in 2026, focusing on Permian and Marcellus basin projects to meet growing natural gas and NGL infrastructure needs.
Over the trailing year it converted 1.31x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated fragile grew net income 37% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=993).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity (low R² over the window).
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Energy names rated stable grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1671).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-11-05.
“MPLX’s durable growth and increasing cash flow to MPC delivers a differentiated value proposition.””
“MPLX’s execution of its Natural Gas and NGL strategy supports durable growth and increasing distributions that differentiate MPC, allowing us to lead in capital return.””
“MPLX progressed its mid-single digit growth strategy through expansions across its Natural Gas and NGL value chains, underpinning distribution growth and strengthening cash flow stability to MPC, pos…”
“In Midstream, MPLX is investing to execute its natural gas and NGL growth strategies.”
“MPC’s Midstream segment is expanding its Permian to Gulf Coast integrated value chain, progressing long-haul pipeline growth projects to support expected increased producer activity, and investing in…”
“MPC’s Midstream segment is expanding its Permian to Gulf Coast integrated value chain, progressing long-haul pipeline growth projects to support expected increased producer activity, and investing in…”
““The completion of two high-return, yield-enhancing refining investments further position us to deliver incremental value.”
““Our first-quarter results underscore the strength and reliability of our integrated system and our disciplined approach to capital deployment,” said Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer M…”
“Growing MPLX distributions differentiates MPC from peers and supports our commitment to industry-leading capital return.””
“We believe execution of our strategic commitments will position our integrated system to deliver industry-leading capital returns and offer a compelling value proposition for our shareholders.””
“We believe we are positioned over time to deliver peer-leading capital returns.””