Marathon Petroleum (MPC)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-07-07
$266.18-1.04%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $266.18. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $266 MPC trades at 21× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median, but our blended $234 fair value sits below the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $228–$344. Not investment advice.
$228.00 – $344.00 (median $267.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $18.13/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $267.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $83.05 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $150.58 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $189.59 | 8.5 | 34.69 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $326.46 | 16.9 | 19.33 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $303.01 | 23.9 | 12.69 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $722.84 | 1.6 | 458.92 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $78.58 | 6.2 | 12.69 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $100.58 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $251.38 | 19.8 | 12.69 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $329.52 | 23.9 | 13.80 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $119.92 | 16.9 | 7.10 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $582.40 | 23.9 | 24.39 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $746.40 | 1.6 | 473.89 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 3Y | $151.04 | 6.2 | 24.39 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $483.18 | 19.8 | 24.39 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $61.51 | 16.9 | 3.64 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $594.72 | 23.9 | 24.91 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $762.19 | 1.6 | 483.91 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $154.24 | 6.2 | 24.91 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $493.40 | 19.8 | 24.91 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.