Marathon Petroleum (MPC)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$388.90+0.31%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MPC
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $389 MPC trades at 15× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $432 fair value sits above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $265–$462. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $335.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $838.93 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $744.76 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $46.11 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$265.00 – $462.00 (median $335.00) · 15 analysts · as of 2026-09-03
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 21% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly — years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $18.10/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $229.79 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $353.59 | 7.6 | 58.32 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $626.00 | 14.1 | 44.48 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $528.08 | 13.8 | 38.22 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $909.08 | 1.7 | 529.58 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $251.49 | 9.5 | 26.46 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $158.05 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $659.77 | 22.5 | 29.30 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $642.28 | 14.1 | 45.64 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $483.41 | 13.8 | 34.99 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $796.19 | 1.7 | 463.81 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $285.15 | 9.5 | 30.00 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $653.37 | 14.1 | 46.42 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $442.51 | 13.8 | 32.03 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $728.83 | 1.7 | 424.57 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $261.03 | 9.5 | 27.46 | Analyst | medium |