Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Marathon Petroleum (MPC)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$377.32-3.91%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
48.41 → 59.23 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MPC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital spending outlook for 2026 | A primary condition in Marathon Petroleum's published investment case. The stated target is $1.5 billion. | Intact | capital spending falls below $1.3 billion for 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MPC is a cyclical energy business with a multi-year thesis tied to refinery performance, sector conditions, and growth in its midstream business. The thesis is intact, though its signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable as earnings quality remains fragile.
The valuation evidence describes MPC as cheap versus peers, while the overall priced-in assessment is justified rather than stretched. That suggests the market is not requiring flawless execution, though the evidence does not specify exactly what earnings expectations are embedded.
Recent financial performance has been strong, with earnings beats reported in May and August 2026, and management returned substantial capital in both the first and second quarters. Near term, the risk of a miss is assessed as low, but erratic earnings surprises and recent peer misses warrant attention; refining results can also reflect changing market conditions.
The multi-year case depends in part on management advancing MPLX’s natural gas and NGL projects and delivering refinery investments, where progress is mixed. In the near term, guidance is a key swing factor: a cut would weaken the setup, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could sustain the industry tailwind. Peer misses or lower guidance could instead weaken that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MPC’s thesis rests on strong execution and continued capital returns, balanced against fragile earnings quality and a sector backdrop that can shift. The evidence supports an intact but mildly favorable view, with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Earnings per share beat estimates with $4.07 in Q4 2025 and $1.65 in Q1 2026. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $25 for FY 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $26.59 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $30.45 EPS for FY 2026. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Nov 3, 202626.59 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Refining and marketing margin per barrel | Marathon Petroleum keeps improving refining margins, reaching $17.74 per barrel in Q1 2026. | Intact | refining margin falls below $13 per barrel | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$27.63 → $59.23 · observed estimates
$137.97B → $167.42B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $27.63 | $137,971,778,760 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $27.63 | $137,971,778,760 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $29.19 | $138,946,702,890 | 19 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $29.19 | $138,946,702,890 | 19 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $28.78 | $146,803,042,129 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $27.77 | $138,946,702,890 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $27.77 | $138,946,702,890 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $27.77 | $138,946,702,890 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $29.21 | $146,803,042,129 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $27.77 | $138,946,702,890 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $29.21 | $146,803,042,129 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $29.21 | $146,803,042,129 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $29.21 | $146,803,042,129 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $29.21 | $146,803,042,129 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $30.77 | $153,469,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $29.70 | $143,595,546,690 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $29.70 | $143,595,546,690 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $30.77 | $153,469,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $29.73 | $143,741,183,050 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $29.73 | $143,741,183,050 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $30.77 | $153,469,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $30.77 | $153,469,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $30.77 | $153,469,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $30.77 | $153,469,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $30.77 | $153,469,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $30.77 | $153,469,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $34.25 | $155,454,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $34.25 | $155,454,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $34.25 | $155,454,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $34.25 | $155,454,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $34.25 | $155,454,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $34.61 | $155,454,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $34.61 | $155,454,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $34.61 | $155,454,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $34.61 | $155,454,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $34.61 | $155,454,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $34.61 | $155,454,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $34.61 | $155,454,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $34.61 | $155,454,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $34.61 | $155,454,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $34.83 | $155,454,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $34.83 | $155,454,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $35.82 | $155,454,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $35.82 | $155,454,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $35.94 | $155,454,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $35.94 | $155,454,533,613 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $36.95 | $155,530,067,498 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $36.95 | $155,530,067,498 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $37.60 | $155,530,067,498 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $39.00 | $155,530,067,498 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $39.00 | $155,530,067,498 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $39.00 | $155,530,067,498 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $42.49 | $159,949,264,410 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $42.49 | $159,949,264,410 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $42.49 | $159,949,264,410 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $42.49 | $159,949,264,410 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $42.49 | $159,949,264,410 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $43.26 | $161,573,400,410 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $43.26 | $161,573,400,410 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $43.26 | $161,573,400,410 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $45.81 | $161,573,400,410 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $45.81 | $161,573,400,410 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $45.81 | $161,573,400,410 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $45.81 | $161,573,400,410 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $45.81 | $161,573,400,410 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $45.81 | $161,573,400,410 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $45.81 | $161,573,400,410 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $45.81 | $161,573,400,410 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $45.81 | $161,573,400,410 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $47.41 | $163,692,589,299 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $48.41 | $165,834,144,854 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $48.41 | $165,834,144,854 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $48.41 | $165,834,144,854 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $49.56 | $165,834,144,854 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $49.56 | $165,834,144,854 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $49.56 | $165,834,144,854 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $50.19 | $167,190,033,743 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $50.19 | $167,190,033,743 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $51.18 | $167,299,580,187 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $51.13 | $167,299,580,187 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $51.11 | $167,299,580,187 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $54.31 | $167,217,783,986 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $55.09 | $167,217,783,986 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $55.09 | $167,217,783,986 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $55.09 | $167,217,783,986 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $55.09 | $167,217,783,986 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $55.09 | $167,217,783,986 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $57.24 | $167,217,783,986 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $57.24 | $168,343,450,652 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $57.61 | $168,343,450,652 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $57.74 | $169,454,372,875 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $57.74 | $169,454,372,875 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $57.74 | $169,454,372,875 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $57.74 | $169,454,372,875 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $57.74 | $169,454,372,875 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $57.74 | $169,454,372,875 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $57.74 | $169,454,372,875 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $57.74 | $169,454,372,875 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $57.74 | $169,454,372,875 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $57.74 | $169,454,372,875 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $57.74 | $169,454,372,875 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $57.74 | $169,454,372,875 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $59.23 | $167,421,153,800 | 10 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 8 recorded
5 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.