Marathon Petroleum (MPC)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$388.90+0.31%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MPC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MPC — credit agreement
Dated 2026-04-13
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. MPC Credit Agreement On April 7, 2026, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, a Delaware corporation (“MPC”), entered into a $5.0 billion, five-year Revolving Credit Agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent, each of JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Barclays Bank PLC, BofA Securities, Inc., Citibank, N.A., Goldman Sachs Bank USA, Mizuho Bank, Ltd., MUFG Bank, Ltd., RBC Capital Markets, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking…
Why it matters: Finishing this project on time will increase production. This will help grow revenue.
Supportive ifEl Paso FCC upgrade is completed by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifEl Paso FCC upgrade is delayed beyond Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting the capital spending target is key. It helps with growth projects and efficiency.
Watch forQ2 capital spending aligns with the $1.5 billion outlook.
Also watch forQ2 capital spending is much lower than the $1.5 billion outlook.
Why it matters: Lower throughput may show problems or less demand, affecting revenue.
Worry ifRefining throughput reported below 2.8 million barrels per day for Q3.
Less concerning ifRefining throughput reported at or above 2.8 million barrels per day for Q3.
Why it matters: More share buybacks could show strong cash flow. This shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifMPC announces a new share repurchase program of $1 billion or more after Q2 earnings.
Worry ifThere were no new share buyback announcements after Q2 earnings.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$144 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $334 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,832 loss on $10,000 · 18.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If distribution grows, it helps Marathon's plan to return capital. It shows strong cash flow.
Supportive ifMPLX confirms a distribution growth rate of 12.5% for 2026.
Worry ifMPLX announces a lower distribution growth rate than 12.5% for 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in refining margins can hurt profits and show market weakness.
Worry ifRefining margin per barrel was below $36.
Less concerning ifRefining margin per barrel stays at or above $36.
Why it matters: More spending may show strong trust in natural gas and NGL markets.
Supportive ifMPLX announces growth capital spending above $2.9 billion for 2026.
Worry ifMPLX revises growth capital spending down below $2.9 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: Higher costs may show problems with profits and margins.
Worry ifRefining costs per barrel were over $5.65 in Q3.
Less concerning ifRefining costs per barrel were at or below $5.65 in Q3.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports capital returns and operational stability. Weak cash flow could raise concerns.
Supportive ifQ2 cash from operations exceeds $1.5 billion.
Worry ifQ2 cash from operations falls below $1 billion.
Why it matters: Finishing this project can boost production and profits. This supports future growth.
Supportive ifEl Paso yield improvement project is completed by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifEl Paso yield improvement project is delayed beyond Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Lower use may show problems. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifRefining use was below 90% in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifRefining use was above 90% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher refining margins signal strong operational performance and can boost profits. This is key for MPC's growth.
Supportive ifRefining margin capture exceeds $18 per barrel in Q2 2026.
Worry ifRefining margin capture falls below $16 per barrel in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This project will boost jet fuel production. It will help meet rising demand.
Supportive ifThe Robinson project will be done as planned in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe Robinson project will be delayed past Q3 2026.