Marathon Petroleum (MPC)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$392.68-8.11%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MPC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -17.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -3.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MPC — director transition
Dated 2026-10-29
Director — David E. Constable: The filing discloses the routine election of a new director to an expanded board, which is a standard governance action rather than an executive departure.
Why it matters: The plant adds gas processing and NGL capacity in the Marcellus. A timely start would show progress on MPLX's growth plan.
Supportive ifMPLX reports Harmon Creek III began operations in August 2026.
Worry ifMPLX reports that Harmon Creek III did not begin operations in August or has pushed back its start date.
Why it matters: MPC guided to 3.005 million barrels per day of total Q3 throughput. A miss could point to weaker plant output or more downtime.
Worry ifQ3 total throughput is below 3.005 million barrels per day, or refining costs exceed $5.60 per barrel.
Less concerning ifQ3 total throughput reaches at least 3.005 million barrels per day and refining costs stay at or below $5.60 per barrel.
Why it matters: MPC returned $2.8 billion in Q2 and had $6.1 billion left in its repurchase plan. The next report can show whether returns continue.
Supportive ifMPC reports returning more than $2.8 billion in a quarter, or buying back shares while funds remain.
Worry ifMPC reports returning no capital in a quarter, or says it paused share buybacks.
Why it matters: Q2 refining results rose with higher crack spreads. Q3 results can show whether that strong margin held.
Watch forQ3 R&M adjusted EBITDA per barrel is at least $24.84, the Q2 2026 level.
Also watch forQ3 R&M adjusted EBITDA per barrel is below $24.84, and the release links the drop to lower crack spreads.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$124 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $372 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,902 loss on $10,000 · 19.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The project can add about 10,000 barrels per day of jet fuel output. Results can show if it helps meet regional demand.
Supportive ifMPC reports higher jet fuel output at Robinson and ties the increase to the new project.
Worry ifMPC reports no added jet fuel output from Robinson, or delays the project's full operation.
Why it matters: The 90,000-barrel-per-day unit aims to add high-value diesel supply. A delay would push back this planned growth.
Supportive ifMPC says the 90,000-barrel-per-day hydrotreater will start by year-end 2027.
Worry ifMPC moves the planned start beyond year-end 2027 or reports the unit is not ready.