Merck & Co. (MRK)
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-11-04
$150.36+3.93%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MRK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 73.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 69.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MRK — director transition
Dated 2026-10-13
Director — Paul J. Diaz: The filing announces the routine election of a new director to the Board of Directors, which is a standard governance event and not an executive departure.
Why it matters: The melanoma trial tests a cancer vaccine with KEYTRUDA after surgery. Positive results would support this program.
Supportive ifMerck reports that the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial met its main goal.
Worry ifMerck reports that the trial missed its main goal or stopped early.
Why it matters: Merck raised its 2026 sales range to $66.8 billion-$67.3 billion. Sales below that range would weaken the outlook.
Watch forMerck reports 2026 sales between $66.8 billion and $67.3 billion.
Also watch forMerck lowers its 2026 sales range or reports sales below $66.8 billion.
Why it matters: Merck set a goal of about $3 billion in yearly savings by the end of 2027. Clear progress would show that the plan is on track.
Watch forMerck reports yearly savings near $3 billion by the end of 2027.
Also watch forMerck reports savings below its goal or moves the end-2027 target date.
Why it matters: WINREVAIR sales grew 93% in Q3, to $694 million. Continued growth would support Merck's new product push.
Supportive ifWINREVAIR sales rise year over year in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifWINREVAIR sales fall year over year in the next reported quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$125 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $246 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,137 loss on $10,000 · 11.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.