Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Moderna (MRNA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$241.46-6.55%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MRNA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain cash and investments near $7.5 billion | It plans to keep a strong cash position near $7.5 billion. | Intact | Cash and investments fall below 7.0 billion USD | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Cash and Investments: Year-end cash and investments for 2026 are now projected to be $4.7 to $5.2 billion, an improvement of approximately $0.2 billion.” “Cash and Investments: Year-end cash and investments for 2026 are now projected to be $4.5 to $5.0 billion, which excludes any further drawdowns from the Company's remaining $0.9 billion available under its credit facility.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk biotech recovery and growth story, with the thesis depending on revenue growth and future operating improvement. The current thesis state is watch, not a fresh break, and confidence in the assessment is medium.
The valuation model shows a substantial premium to peers, while its low confidence and expectations gap point to uncertainty about what that premium assumes. The evidence labels the pricing as unjustified, but does not provide enough detail to say precisely which future outcomes the market expects.
Near term, recent financial performance is weak and the company remains loss-making, although revenue rose from $108 million in 2025-Q1 to $389 million in 2026-Q1. Management continues to target up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 and has reduced its operating expense outlook, while cash and investments have declined and are projected to fall further by year-end. A guidance cut, continued weak results, and the company’s history of recent quarterly misses remain risks.
Over the next several quarters, the thesis depends on whether revenue growth continues, cost discipline improves the financial picture, and cash use remains manageable. A guidance cut or broader recession fears would weigh on the setup, while strength among healthcare sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
For the 1-3 year view, MRNA combines improving revenue momentum and a supportive sector backdrop with losses, elevated risk, and an expensive valuation relative to peers. The central question is whether execution can make the premium more justified over time. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Control operating expenses to avoid further sharp increases | A supporting condition in Moderna's published investment case. The stated target is Operating expenses do not exceed 1.8 billion USD per quarter. | Broken | Operating expenses rise above 1.8 billion USD per quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain operating margin near 4.4 billion USD in 2026 | It plans to keep a strong cash position near $7.5 billion. | Intact | Operating margin falls below 4.2 billion USD in FY26 | Operating margin: -562.07% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~4.4 billion USD operating margin. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 31, 2026-562.068966 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 | A primary condition in Moderna's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below ~9% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 2.11% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 31, 20262.112676 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Financial Framework Revenue: The Company is targeting up to 10% growth from 2025 revenue and expects 2026 revenue split to be approximately 50% U.S. and approximately 50% international.” “Commercial Updates Moderna is entering the year with three approved products, Spikevax®, mNEXSPIKE® and mRESVIA ®, with seasonal vaccines expected to deliver up to 10% revenue growth in 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-4.78 → $-4.75 · observed estimates
$2.52B → $2.43B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-4.78 | $2,523,161,123 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-4.75 | $2,551,500,990 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-4.75 | $2,551,500,990 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-4.75 | $2,551,500,990 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-4.77 | $2,523,161,123 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-4.77 | $2,519,003,229 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-4.75 | $2,547,550,990 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-4.77 | $2,519,003,229 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-4.77 | $2,519,003,229 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-4.97 | $2,424,154,800 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-4.80 | $2,513,432,470 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-4.79 | $2,511,211,417 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-4.91 | $2,422,857,500 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-4.91 | $2,422,857,500 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-4.79 | $2,511,211,417 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-4.91 | $2,422,857,500 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-4.91 | $2,422,857,500 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-4.91 | $2,422,857,500 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-4.79 | $2,511,211,417 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-4.79 | $2,511,211,417 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-4.79 | $2,511,211,417 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-4.79 | $2,511,211,417 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-4.79 | $2,511,211,417 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-4.79 | $2,511,211,417 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-4.79 | $2,511,211,417 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-4.79 | $2,511,211,417 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-4.88 | $2,398,871,003 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-4.88 | $2,412,757,947 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-4.88 | $2,413,442,157 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-4.88 | $2,413,442,157 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-4.88 | $2,413,442,157 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-4.88 | $2,413,442,157 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-4.90 | $2,381,126,368 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-4.90 | $2,381,126,368 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-4.90 | $2,381,126,368 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-4.94 | $2,397,029,842 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-4.94 | $2,397,029,842 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-4.94 | $2,397,029,842 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-4.88 | $2,397,029,842 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-4.88 | $2,397,029,842 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-4.88 | $2,397,029,842 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-4.89 | $2,391,332,694 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-4.80 | $2,391,332,694 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-4.80 | $2,391,332,694 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-4.80 | $2,391,332,694 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-4.80 | $2,391,332,694 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-4.80 | $2,391,332,694 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-4.80 | $2,391,332,694 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-4.80 | $2,391,332,694 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-4.77 | $2,391,648,483 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-4.77 | $2,391,648,483 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-4.77 | $2,391,648,483 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-4.77 | $2,391,648,483 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-4.77 | $2,391,648,483 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-4.77 | $2,391,648,483 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-4.77 | $2,391,648,483 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-4.77 | $2,391,648,483 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-4.77 | $2,391,648,483 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-4.77 | $2,391,648,483 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-4.77 | $2,391,648,483 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-4.77 | $2,391,648,483 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-4.77 | $2,391,648,483 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-4.73 | $2,424,566,059 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-4.73 | $2,424,566,059 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-4.73 | $2,424,566,059 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-4.73 | $2,424,566,059 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-4.73 | $2,424,566,059 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-4.73 | $2,424,566,059 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-4.73 | $2,424,963,479 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-4.73 | $2,424,961,799 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-4.73 | $2,424,961,799 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-4.73 | $2,424,961,799 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-4.73 | $2,424,961,799 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-4.73 | $2,424,961,799 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-4.73 | $2,424,961,799 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-4.75 | $2,423,122,800 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-4.75 | $2,423,492,800 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-4.74 | $2,429,899,912 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-4.74 | $2,429,899,912 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-4.74 | $2,429,899,912 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-4.74 | $2,429,899,912 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-4.74 | $2,429,899,912 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-4.74 | $2,429,899,912 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-4.74 | $2,429,907,556 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-4.74 | $2,429,907,556 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-4.74 | $2,429,791,115 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-4.74 | $2,429,791,115 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-4.75 | $2,427,847,303 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-4.78 | $2,423,323,494 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-4.77 | $2,424,752,065 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-4.77 | $2,424,752,065 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-4.77 | $2,424,753,665 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-4.77 | $2,424,753,665 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-4.77 | $2,424,753,665 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-4.77 | $2,424,753,665 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-4.75 | $2,434,277,475 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-4.75 | $2,434,277,475 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-4.75 | $2,434,277,475 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-4.75 | $2,434,277,475 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-4.75 | $2,434,277,475 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-4.75 | $2,434,277,475 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-4.75 | $2,434,277,475 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-4.75 | $2,434,277,475 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-4.75 | $2,434,277,475 | 16 / 16 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 5 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.