Moderna (MRNA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$241.46-6.55%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MRNA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 120.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 112.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 117 industry peers
MRNA — COO transition
Dated 2026-09-30
COO — Juan Andres: The filing primarily announces the appointment of a new COO (Juan Andres) to a newly created role, while noting the retirement of the outgoing Chief Technical Operations and Quality Officer.
Why it matters: Moderna targets up to 10% revenue growth in 2026. It said about 55% of second-half revenue would land in Q3.
Watch forQ3 revenue is at least 55% of the guided 2026 full-year revenue range, keeping the growth target on track.
Also watch forQ3 revenue is below 55% of the guided full-year revenue range, putting the 2026 growth target at risk.
Why it matters: Cash has fallen as Moderna funds operations and research. The year-end range is a clear test of its cash plan.
Watch forYear-end 2026 cash and investments are at least $4.7 billion and no more than $5.2 billion.
Also watch forYear-end cash and investments fall below $4.7 billion. This excludes any later credit facility draw.
Why it matters: The trial did not meet its early success test. The added group may help show whether the vaccine can still meet the study goal.
Watch forThe added cohort enrolls, and the final trial analysis meets its stated success goals.
Also watch forThe final results miss the success goals, or Moderna stops the trial before finishing the added group.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$339 on $10,000 · ±3.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $719 loss on $10,000 · 7.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,416 loss on $10,000 · 34.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.