Moderna (MRNA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$145.55-2.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MRNA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 47.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 41.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MRNA — capital allocation — Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities
Dated 2026-09-01
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The information set forth under
Why it matters: Not meeting the growth target could show problems in Moderna's money plans.
Worry if2026 revenue growth reported at 10% or higher compared to 2025.
Less concerning if2026 revenue growth is below 10% compared to 2025.
Why it matters: New funding could support cash flow and future projects.
Supportive ifNew government funding agreements or grants are announced.
Worry ifNo new funding announcements in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Success in this study could support Moderna's plans. It may affect future earnings.
Supportive ifPositive interim results were announced from the Phase 3 study of the CMV vaccine.
Worry ifAnnouncement of delays or negative results from the Phase 3 study of the CMV vaccine.
Why it matters: News on clinical trials can affect investor trust and future earnings.
Supportive ifPositive results from any ongoing Phase 3 trials reported.
Worry ifNegative results or delays reported for ongoing Phase 3 trials.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$270 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $695 loss on $10,000 · 6.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,416 loss on $10,000 · 34.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Good data could improve Moderna's cancer treatments. This helps its growth plans.
Supportive ifThe Phase 3 study shows good results for intismeran in melanoma.
Worry ifThe Phase 3 study does not show strong results for intismeran.
Why it matters: Having strong cash is important for funding operations and growth.
Supportive ifCash position reported stable or increasing in Q2.
Worry ifCash position was reported to be down in Q2.
Why it matters: The cash balance shows financial health. It shows the ability to fund operations and R&D.
Watch forYear-end cash and investments are reported between $4.7 and $5.2 billion.
Also watch forYear-end cash and investments fall below $4.7 billion.
Why it matters: Data from the RSV vaccine study may affect Moderna's growth and market position.
Supportive ifPositive interim results came from the Phase 2/3 study of the RSV vaccine (mRNA-1345).
Worry ifNegative results or delays came from the Phase 2/3 study of the RSV vaccine.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows that Moderna is doing well with its growth plan.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth reaches or exceeds 10% compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: A drop below this level could signal financial strain and impact growth plans.
Worry ifThe cash balance at year-end was below $4.7 billion.
Less concerning ifYear-end cash balance reported at or above $5.2 billion.
Why it matters: Approval of mFLUSIVA would mark Moderna's fifth product launch, boosting revenue growth.
Supportive ifThe U.S. FDA grants approval for mFLUSIVA before or on the August 5 PDUFA date.
Worry ifThe FDA denies approval or delays the decision beyond August 5.
Why it matters: Results from this trial will affect future plans and how investors feel.
Watch forTrial results show that mRNA-1403 works well.
Also watch forNegative trial results showing lack of efficacy for mRNA-1403.