Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Marsh McLennan (MRSH)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-05
$209.43-0.45%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
11.42 → 11.46 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MRSH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase adjusted EPS by at least 8% to $3.29 in fiscal year 2026 | Adjusted EPS rises 8% to $3.29. | Intact | adjusted EPS growth falls below 5% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a financial-services growth business with a durable premium valuation, rather than a turnaround or deep-value setup. Its long-term thesis has weakened this month as recent financial performance slipped relative to industry peers, while the evidence on management execution is mixed.
MRSH is valued at a 1.62 premium to peers, and the evidence describes expectations as stretched, with a 0.21 expectations gap. That premium reflects a durable advantage, but the valuation leaves less room for weaker execution; the evidence does not show the full expensive, weak, and turbulent risk combination.
Near term, revenue growth has continued: 2026-Q3 revenue was higher than a year earlier, with underlying growth across Risk and Consulting. Thrive remains a stated priority, but specific efficiency savings were not quantified, so delivery on that commitment is unclear; recent results were tagged as earnings beats, though the broader signal has shifted to mixed.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength from sector peers AJG, AON, and WTW would support sector momentum. The rate backdrop is another swing factor: the evidence says Financials tend to fare better when rates stay high, so rate cuts would weigh on the sector.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on sustained revenue growth and clearer delivery on Thrive, while the expensive valuation and weaker recent performance make execution more important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Marsh McLennan's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain leverage and liquidity within historical ranges. |
| Intact |
| Leverage or liquidity deteriorates materially beyond historical norms |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Optimize global operating model through Thrive program | A supporting condition in Marsh McLennan's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain or improve operating efficiency. | Intact | No progress or setbacks in Thrive program efficiency gains by FY26 | Thrive savings target $600M through 2028 vs FY26 efficiency target Marsh outlined $600M Thrive savings target through 2028 and reaffirmed 2026 underlying growth outlook following strong Q3 results. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve at least 10% revenue growth in fiscal year 2026 | A primary condition in Marsh McLennan's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 8.06% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 15, 20268.061723 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$11.38 → $11.46 · observed estimates
$29.95B → $30.19B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $11.38 | $29,952,485,699 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-25 | $11.39 | $29,947,798,100 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | $11.39 | $29,947,798,100 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-07-27 | $11.40 | $29,951,610,600 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-07-28 | $11.40 | $29,951,610,600 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-07-29 | $11.41 | $29,951,605,300 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-07-30 | $11.41 | $29,951,605,300 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-07-31 | $11.41 | $29,951,605,300 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-08-01 | $11.40 | $29,994,199,718 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-02 | $11.41 | $29,951,605,300 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $11.40 | $29,994,199,718 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $11.40 | $29,994,199,718 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $11.41 | $29,951,605,300 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-08-06 | $11.40 | $29,994,199,718 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-07 | $11.40 | $29,994,199,718 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-08 | $11.41 | $29,951,605,300 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-08-09 | $11.41 | $29,951,605,300 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-08-10 | $11.41 | $29,951,605,300 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | $11.40 | $29,994,199,718 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $11.40 | $29,994,199,718 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-14 | $11.40 | $29,994,199,718 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-15 | $11.40 | $29,994,199,718 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-16 | $11.40 | $29,994,199,718 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-17 | $11.40 | $29,994,199,718 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-18 | $11.40 | $29,994,199,718 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-19 | $11.40 | $29,994,199,718 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-20 | $11.40 | $29,993,693,835 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-08-21 | $11.40 | $29,993,693,835 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $11.40 | $29,993,693,835 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $11.40 | $29,993,693,835 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $11.40 | $29,993,693,835 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $11.40 | $29,993,693,835 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $11.41 | $30,001,046,777 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $11.41 | $30,001,046,777 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $11.41 | $30,001,046,777 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-31 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-09-01 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-09-02 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-09-11 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-28 | $11.40 | $29,990,987,953 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.40 | $29,989,693,835 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.40 | $29,989,693,835 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.41 | $29,997,450,071 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.42 | $30,001,652,941 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | $11.42 | $30,001,652,941 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-04 | $11.42 | $30,001,652,941 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $11.42 | $30,001,652,941 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $11.42 | $30,001,277,929 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $11.42 | $29,991,493,623 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $11.42 | $29,984,140,682 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $11.42 | $29,995,375,976 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $11.42 | $29,995,375,976 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $11.42 | $29,995,375,976 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $11.42 | $29,995,375,976 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $11.42 | $29,999,552,447 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $11.42 | $29,999,258,329 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $11.42 | $29,999,234,841 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $11.45 | $30,089,049,615 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-17 | $11.45 | $30,089,049,615 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-18 | $11.45 | $30,132,049,615 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $11.45 | $30,132,049,615 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $11.45 | $30,142,694,878 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $11.45 | $30,142,694,878 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $11.45 | $30,159,374,360 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $11.45 | $30,159,374,360 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $11.45 | $30,182,433,184 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $11.45 | $30,182,433,184 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $11.45 | $30,182,433,184 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $11.45 | $30,182,433,184 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $11.46 | $30,192,609,654 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $11.46 | $30,192,609,654 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $11.46 | $30,192,609,654 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $11.46 | $30,192,609,654 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $11.46 | $30,192,609,654 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $11.46 | $30,192,609,654 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $11.46 | $30,192,609,654 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $11.46 | $30,185,139,066 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-11-05 | $11.46 | $30,185,139,066 | 14 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 8 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.