Marsh McLennan (MRSH)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$185.74-1.44%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MRSH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers
MRSH — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-04
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On June 2, 2026, Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (the “Company”) and certain of its domestic and foreign subsidiaries entered into a new Amended and Restated 5 Year Credit Agreement, dated as of June 2, 2026, among the Company, as borrower, the designated subsidiaries party thereto as borrowers, Citibank, N.A., as administrative agent, and the lenders from time to time party thereto (the “Credit Agreement”). The Credit Agreement provides for a multi…
Why it matters: The new COO's effect on company strategy could change performance and growth.
Watch forThere are good operational metrics or new strategies from the new COO.
Also watch forNo clear changes in operational metrics since the COO was appointed.
Why it matters: A big drop in operating income could show problems with cost management.
Worry ifQ2 operating income falls more than 12% from Q1.
Less concerning ifQ2 operating income stays the same or grows from Q1.
Why it matters: Mark McGivney's work in his new job may affect how the company runs.
Watch forGood feedback on plans led by Mark McGivney.
Also watch forBad feedback or slow progress on plans.
Why it matters: Progress on the Thrive program could signal improved efficiency and client value.
Supportive ifManagement shares news about progress or goals reached in the Thrive program.
Worry ifNo updates or negative feedback on the Thrive program's progress.
Why it matters: The financial sector's growth affects Marsh McLennan's performance. A drop signals broader issues.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains at or above its median.
Why it matters: Keeping or beating this EPS level shows strong earnings.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS for Q2 is reported at $3.29 or higher.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS for Q2 drops below $3.00.
Why it matters: Achieving this target shows Marsh is on track with its growth strategy for 2026.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth of 10% or more compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 8% year over year.
Why it matters: More share buybacks could show strong cash flow. It also shows management's confidence.
Supportive ifThey announced share buybacks over $750 million in Q3.
Worry ifNo share repurchases announced in Q3.
Why it matters: Updates on capital use will show how management plans to spend its money.
Watch forManagement shares clear plans for how to use capital after the new credit deal.
Also watch forNo updates or unclear plans about capital use after the new credit deal.
Why it matters: If it drops below 5%, it shows weaker demand. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth remains at or above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth over 8% would show strong earnings and good management performance.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS growth reported above 8% for Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS growth reported below 8% for Q3.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$118 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $234 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,325 loss on $10,000 · 23.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.