Marsh McLennan (MRSH)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-05
$209.43-0.45%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MRSH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 32.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MRSH — debt issuance
Dated 2026-10-27
Other Events On October 20, 2026, Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with the several underwriters party thereto (the “Underwriters”), pursuant to which the Underwriters agreed to purchase from the Company €600 million aggregate principal amount of its 4.250% Senior Notes due 2032 and €600 million aggregate principal amount of its 4.625% Senior Notes due 2036 (collectively, the “Notes”). The Notes were registe…
Why it matters: Management says it is making progress on Thrive, but Q3 did not name a savings result. Lower costs would make that progress measurable.
Supportive ifA future results release names Thrive savings or cost cuts, with a dollar amount or margin gain.
Worry ifThe next two results releases show no Thrive savings or cost cuts. Adjusted operating income grows slower than revenue.
Why it matters: Marsh disclosed two euro note offerings due in 2032 and 2036. Final terms will show whether the announced funding was completed.
Watch forA filing confirms issuance of both note groups, each with €600 million in principal.
Also watch forA filing shows that either note group was not issued, or that its principal was below €600 million.
Why it matters: Marsh posted 5% underlying growth in Q3. Another quarter above that mark would show broad growth is holding.
Supportive ifQ4 underlying revenue growth is above 5%.
Worry ifQ4 underlying revenue growth is below 4%.
Why it matters: Workforce and Rewards was the only People and Investments line with falling Q3 revenue. Growth would show that weakness has eased.
Supportive ifWorkforce and Rewards underlying revenue grows year over year in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifWorkforce and Rewards underlying revenue falls year over year again in the next reported quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$103 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $222 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,666 loss on $10,000 · 16.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Marsh bought back $2.0 billion of shares through Q3, matching the disclosed prior-year total. More repurchases would mark a higher pace.
Supportive ifThe next results release reports more than $2.0 billion in share repurchases for the full year.
Worry ifThe next results release reports less than $2.0 billion in share repurchases for the full year.