Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
MSA Safety (MSA)
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$169.99-4.28%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.97 → 9.92 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MSA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain or increase dividend payments | A supporting condition in MSA Safety's published investment case. The stated target is Dividend per share >= $0.53 per quarter. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.51 per quarter | Dividend per share: $0.54 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.53 per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 20260.54 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MSA is a steady industrial growth business, rather than a turnaround or speculative growth story. Its long-term thesis is intact, though its signal has eased from favorable to mildly favorable.
The valuation evidence describes MSA as cheap versus peers, with a small expectations gap and no flagged signs of concentrated fragility. The snapshot labels pricing as justified, but confidence in the valuation model is high rather than certainty about future results.
Near term, results show continued progress: second-quarter revenue rose 6% year over year and diluted earnings per share rose 40%. Management is on track with Autronica integration, its repurchase program, and its stated focus on sales growth and margins, but a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; the recent miss history and sector headwind add caution.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends in part on completing Autronica integration and sustaining earnings growth. In the near term, guidance and results from industrial peers ALLE, BCO, and BRC could signal whether sector support strengthens or fades.
MSA’s multi-year view remains intact, with recent execution supporting the business case and valuation evidence showing a modest expectations gap. The main watchpoints are guidance, sector conditions, and successful integration of Autronica. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Free cash flow yield near 5% or higher |
| A supporting condition in MSA Safety's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% FCF yield. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow yield falls below 4% in FY26 |
Free cash flow yield: 5.16% As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 20265.16 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase operating income to sustain margin expansion | Operating income rose to $93 million in Q1 2026. | Intact | Operating income falls below $77.8M next year | Operating income: $88.235M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $93M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 202688,235,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain revenue growth near 7% or higher | A primary condition in MSA Safety's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year | Revenue growth: 14.51% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Nov 3, 202614.51291 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.71 → $9.92 · observed estimates
$2.14B → $2.27B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $9.71 | $2,141,567,075 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $9.71 | $2,141,567,075 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $9.71 | $2,141,560,850 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $9.71 | $2,141,567,075 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $9.71 | $2,141,560,850 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $9.71 | $2,141,560,850 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $9.71 | $2,141,567,075 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $9.71 | $2,141,560,850 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.70 | $2,141,562,880 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $9.71 | $2,141,560,850 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $9.83 | $2,196,808,304 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $9.83 | $2,196,800,700 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $10.01 | $2,275,366,780 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $9.83 | $2,196,808,304 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $9.83 | $2,196,808,304 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.83 | $2,196,808,304 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $9.83 | $2,196,808,304 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $10.01 | $2,275,366,780 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $10.01 | $2,275,366,780 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $10.01 | $2,275,366,780 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.83 | $2,196,808,304 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.83 | $2,196,808,304 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.83 | $2,196,808,304 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.83 | $2,196,808,304 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.83 | $2,196,808,304 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.83 | $2,196,808,304 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $10.01 | $2,275,363,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $10.01 | $2,275,363,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $10.03 | $2,275,005,617 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $10.03 | $2,275,005,617 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $10.03 | $2,275,005,617 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $10.03 | $2,275,005,617 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $10.03 | $2,275,005,617 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $10.03 | $2,275,005,617 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $10.03 | $2,275,005,617 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $10.03 | $2,275,005,617 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $10.03 | $2,275,005,617 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $10.03 | $2,275,005,617 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $10.03 | $2,275,005,617 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $10.03 | $2,275,005,617 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.03 | $2,275,005,617 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.03 | $2,275,005,617 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $10.03 | $2,275,005,617 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $10.03 | $2,275,005,617 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $10.03 | $2,275,005,617 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $10.03 | $2,275,005,617 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $10.03 | $2,275,005,617 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $10.03 | $2,275,005,617 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $10.03 | $2,274,964,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $10.03 | $2,274,964,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $10.03 | $2,274,964,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $10.03 | $2,274,964,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $10.03 | $2,274,964,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $10.03 | $2,274,964,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $10.03 | $2,274,964,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $10.03 | $2,274,964,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $10.03 | $2,274,964,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $9.97 | $2,275,406,982 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $9.97 | $2,275,406,982 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $9.97 | $2,275,406,982 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $9.97 | $2,275,406,982 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $9.97 | $2,275,406,982 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $9.97 | $2,275,406,982 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $9.97 | $2,275,406,982 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $9.97 | $2,275,406,982 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $9.97 | $2,275,406,982 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $9.97 | $2,275,406,982 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $9.97 | $2,275,406,982 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $9.97 | $2,275,406,982 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.97 | $2,275,406,982 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.97 | $2,275,406,982 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.97 | $2,275,406,982 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.97 | $2,275,406,982 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.97 | $2,275,406,982 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.97 | $2,275,406,982 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.97 | $2,275,406,982 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.97 | $2,275,406,982 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.97 | $2,275,406,982 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.97 | $2,275,406,982 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.97 | $2,275,406,982 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.95 | $2,275,405,617 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.93 | $2,273,474,579 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.93 | $2,273,474,579 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.93 | $2,273,474,579 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.93 | $2,273,474,579 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.93 | $2,273,474,579 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.93 | $2,273,474,579 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.93 | $2,273,474,579 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.93 | $2,273,474,579 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.93 | $2,273,474,579 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.93 | $2,273,474,579 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.93 | $2,273,474,579 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.93 | $2,273,474,579 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.93 | $2,273,474,579 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.93 | $2,273,474,579 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.93 | $2,273,474,579 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.93 | $2,273,474,579 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.93 | $2,273,474,579 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.93 | $2,273,474,579 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.93 | $2,273,474,579 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.93 | $2,273,474,579 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.93 | $2,273,475,945 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.92 | $2,273,206,230 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.