MSA Safety (MSA)
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$188.69+0.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MSA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 20.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
MSA — officer change
Dated 2026-07-21
Director — Octavio Marquez: Election of a new director to the Board of Directors.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow helps with returns and investing in growth.
Supportive ifFree cash flow generation exceeds $80 million for Q3.
Worry ifFree cash flow generation falls below $60 million for Q3.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show management believes in the company's value and can help the share price.
Supportive ifMSA completes $100 million in share repurchases by the end of 2026.
Worry ifMSA fails to execute share repurchases as planned or suspends the program.
Why it matters: If margins grow, it shows good cost management and efficiency. This boosts investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 operating margin exceeds 22% as reported in Q2.
Worry ifOperating margin drops below 20%. This shows possible cost pressures.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising dividends shows good financial health and care for shareholders. This can make investors feel more confident.
Supportive ifMSA announces an increase in the dividend per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifMSA announces a cut or stop in dividend payments.
Why it matters: The Autronica acquisition could boost MSA's growth and market position. Investors will look for clarity on the deal's progress.
Supportive ifA press release confirms the deal is done or important steps are reached.
Worry ifThere are delays or problems with the deal.
Why it matters: Good execution shows management believes in the company's value. This can help the share price.
Supportive ifMSA plans to complete at least $200 million in share buybacks in the next quarter.
Worry ifManagement says the buyback program may slow down or stop due to money issues.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends shows financial health and care for shareholders. Changes can affect investors.
Watch forThere is a confirmation of dividend payments in the next earnings report.
Also watch forThere is news of a dividend cut or pause.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows good cost control and efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating income goes up more than 10% year-over-year in the next report.
Worry ifOperating income growth stops or falls compared to the last quarter.
Why it matters: Completing the Autronica deal will show MSA's ability to grow and expand its market. This could boost earnings and market position.
Supportive ifThe Autronica deal will finish by Q3 2026. It will then be integrated.
Worry ifThe acquisition faces delays or fails to close as planned.
Why it matters: Good integration can help MSA reach more customers and grow in fixed detection.
Supportive ifManagement says they met important goals six months after the buy.
Worry ifIntegration problems may cause delays or issues in future earnings calls.
Why it matters: Meeting guidance shows MSA can keep growing despite market issues.
Supportive ifQ3 organic sales growth is at least 5% compared to last year.
Worry ifOrganic sales growth is less than 3% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Continued EPS growth shows strong financial health and good operations.
Supportive ifQ3 diluted EPS reported at or above $2.40, maintaining growth trend.
Worry ifQ3 diluted EPS reported below $2.00, breaking the growth trend.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$89 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $223 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,284 loss on $10,000 · 22.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.