MSA Safety (MSA)
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$177.60+2.03%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MSA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 14.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MSA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 2, 2026 , the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
Why it matters: MSA repurchased $76 million of shares in the first half. More repurchases would show it is carrying out the plan while funding Autronica.
Supportive ifMSA reports more share repurchases under the $500 million plan in its next quarterly results.
Worry ifMSA reports no share repurchases and does not name a reason tied to the Autronica deal or debt.
Why it matters: Autronica adds to fixed detection and expands MSA's market. Its sales and debt burden will show how the deal starts to add value.
Watch forMSA reports Autronica sales and keeps pro forma net leverage at or below 1.8x.
Also watch forMSA reports no Autronica sales, or pro forma net debt rises above 1.8x.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$67 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $219 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,284 loss on $10,000 · 22.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.