Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04

$31.60-5.50%

Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Nov 4, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Midland States Bancorp, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+2.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.41 → 3.49 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MSBI yet.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations

Management figures unavailable.

Current consensus figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.32 per share	It maintains a stable quarterly dividend of $0.32 per share.	Intact	dividend cut below $0.32 per share	Dividend per share: $0.33 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: dividend per share = $0.32. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 29, 20260.33 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.49

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.32 per shareDividend per share: $0.33 per share
Achieve and sustain positive net incomeNet income: $22.808M
Complete stock repurchase program of $45 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-13.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Midland States Bancorp, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 31, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a smaller-cap bank with a recovery-oriented long-term thesis, not a clear durable compounder today. The thesis is in a watch state, with recent quality and management scores improving but financial performance still weak.

What's priced into Midland States Bancorp, Inc.

Valuation is neutral, with the model showing MSBI at a modest premium to peers and expectations broadly aligned with fundamentals. The priced-in assessment is justified, and fragility is low, so the evidence does not point to a major expectations mismatch.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been weak relative to the industry, despite earnings beats in July and October and recent improvement in company-quality and management scores. Community Bank balances and Wealth Management revenue show activity behind management’s growth focus, while lower nonperforming assets and net charge-offs suggest progress on credit quality; legacy credits remain. A guidance cut is a key near-term risk, and the supplied evidence describes miss risk as low but notes the company’s smaller size and a deep miss in its recent history.

What Midland States Bancorp, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on whether management sustains profitable bank and wealth growth while resolving legacy credit issues. Credit measures improved from the second to the third quarter, but continued progress is not yet established. The sector backdrop also matters: rate cuts are identified as a headwind, while stronger results and guidance from financial-sector peers could support sector momentum.

Bottom line

For the next one to three years, MSBI’s thesis has some evidence of improving execution and credit quality, but weak relative performance and remaining legacy credits keep it in watch status. The evidence is mixed, with medium confidence. Not investment advice.

Development preview · refreshed Nov 5, 2026Open Living FV detail

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.14	$327,690,200	5 / 5
2026-07-25	$3.14	$327,690,200	4 / 4
2026-07-26	$3.14	$327,690,200	5 / 5
2026-07-27	$3.18	$329,366,640	4 / 4
2026-07-28	$3.16	$329,370,200	5 / 5
2026-07-29	$3.18	$329,366,640	4 / 4
2026-07-30	$3.38	$333,430,200	5 / 5
2026-07-31	$3.38	$333,430,200	5 / 5
2026-08-01	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-08-02	$3.38	$333,430,200	5 / 5
2026-08-03	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-08-04	$3.38	$333,430,200	5 / 5
2026-08-05	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-08-06	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-08-07	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-08-08	$3.38	$333,430,200	5 / 5
2026-08-09	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-08-10	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-08-12	$3.38	$333,430,200	5 / 5
2026-08-13	$3.38	$333,430,200	5 / 5
2026-08-14	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-08-15	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-08-16	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-08-17	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-08-18	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-08-19	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-08-20	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-08-21	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-08-22	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-08-23	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-08-24	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-08-25	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-08-26	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-08-27	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-08-28	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-08-29	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-08-30	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-08-31	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-09-01	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-09-02	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-09-03	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-09-04	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-09-05	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-09-06	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-09-07	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-09-08	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-09-09	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-09-10	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-09-11	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-09-12	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-09-13	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-09-14	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-09-15	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-09-16	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-09-17	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-09-18	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-09-19	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-09-20	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-09-21	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-09-22	$3.40	$333,426,640	4 / 4
2026-09-23	$3.40	$333,466,640	4 / 4
2026-09-24	$3.40	$333,466,640	4 / 4
2026-09-25	$3.40	$333,466,640	4 / 4
2026-09-26	$3.40	$333,466,640	4 / 4
2026-09-27	$3.40	$333,466,640	4 / 4
2026-09-28	$3.40	$333,466,640	4 / 4
2026-09-29	$3.40	$333,466,640	4 / 4
2026-09-30	$3.40	$333,466,640	4 / 4
2026-10-01	$3.40	$333,466,640	4 / 4
2026-10-02	$3.40	$333,650,200	4 / 4
2026-10-03	$3.41	$333,650,200	4 / 4
2026-10-04	$3.41	$333,650,200	4 / 4
2026-10-05	$3.41	$333,650,200	4 / 4
2026-10-06	$3.41	$333,650,200	4 / 4
2026-10-07	$3.41	$333,650,200	4 / 4
2026-10-08	$3.41	$333,650,200	4 / 4
2026-10-09	$3.41	$333,650,200	4 / 4
2026-10-10	$3.41	$333,650,200	4 / 4
2026-10-11	$3.41	$333,650,200	4 / 4
2026-10-12	$3.41	$333,650,200	4 / 4
2026-10-13	$3.41	$333,650,200	4 / 4
2026-10-14	$3.41	$333,650,200	4 / 4
2026-10-15	$3.41	$333,650,200	4 / 4
2026-10-16	$3.41	$333,650,200	4 / 4
2026-10-17	$3.41	$333,650,200	4 / 4
2026-10-18	$3.41	$333,650,200	4 / 4
2026-10-19	$3.41	$333,650,200	4 / 4
2026-10-20	$3.41	$333,650,200	4 / 4
2026-10-21	$3.41	$333,650,200	4 / 4
2026-10-22	$3.41	$333,650,200	4 / 4
2026-10-23	$3.41	$333,650,200	4 / 4
2026-10-24	$3.40	$334,110,200	4 / 4
2026-10-25	$3.40	$334,110,200	4 / 4
2026-10-26	$3.40	$334,110,200	4 / 4
2026-10-27	$3.40	$334,110,200	4 / 4
2026-10-28	$3.49	$340,051,000	4 / 4
2026-10-29	$3.49	$340,051,000	4 / 4
2026-10-30	$3.49	$339,765,580	4 / 4
2026-10-31	$3.49	$339,765,580	4 / 4
2026-11-01	$3.49	$339,765,580	4 / 4
2026-11-02	$3.49	$339,765,580	4 / 4
2026-11-03	$3.49	$339,765,580	4 / 4
2026-11-04	$3.49	$339,765,580	4 / 4

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-06-01	0	5	0
2026-07-01	0	5	0
2026-08-01	0	5	0
2026-09-01	0	5	0
2026-10-01	0	5	0
2026-11-01	0	5	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded

Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) Outlook: What's Priced In | QuarterlyIQ

What could strengthen or challenge Midland States Bancorp, Inc.’s outlook?

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

What the Thesis Depends On

Incoming Evidence

Expectations trend

Outlook in Brief

What's improving

Still unresolved / key risks

Next proof point

Historical risk context

Midland States Bancorp, Inc. outlook in detail

What kind of bet this is

What's priced into Midland States Bancorp, Inc.

What the fundamentals likely do

What Midland States Bancorp, Inc. hinges on

Bottom line

Analyst view

Price-target changes

Bottom line