Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$33.73+0.60%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MSBI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -6.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
MSBI — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-04
Other Events. Dividend Announcement On August 4, 2026, Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that its Board of Directors (the “Board”) declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.33 per share of its common stock. The dividend is payable on August 21 , 2026 to all shareholders of record as of the close of business on August 14 , 2026 . The Board also declared a cash dividend of $0.4844 per depository share on its 7.750% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, S…
Why it matters: A higher net income per share would show continued strong performance and growth.
Supportive ifQ3 net income per share reported above $0.82.
Worry ifQ3 net income per share reported below $0.74.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good money management. It also shows a promise to give money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a quarterly cash dividend of $0.33 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifThe Board lowers the quarterly cash dividend below $0.33 per share.
Why it matters: A larger decrease in loans could indicate challenges in loan growth and credit quality.
Worry ifTotal loans reported down more than $94.9 million.
Less concerning ifTotal loans increase or decrease less than $94.9 million.
Why it matters: More nonperforming loans mean worse credit quality. It also shows poor risk management.
Worry ifNonperforming loans exceed 1.5% of total loans in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNonperforming loans remain below 1.5% of total loans in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$93 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $254 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,082 loss on $10,000 · 20.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would affect Midland's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains at or above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher net charge-offs may mean worse credit quality. This can hurt profits and investor trust.
Worry ifNet charge-offs exceed 1.5% of average loans in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain below 1.5% of average loans.
Why it matters: News about share buybacks can show management's belief in the company's future.
Supportive ifThey announced more share buybacks beyond the current $45 million plan.
Worry ifNo new announcements on share buybacks or a halt in the current program.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows strong financial health and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company announces a dividend at or above $0.33 per share.
Worry ifThe company announces a dividend below $0.33 per share.
Why it matters: A drop in wealth management revenue would indicate challenges in this growth area.
Worry ifWealth management revenue falls below $8 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifWealth management revenue stays at or above $8 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Continued loan growth in the Community Bank is key for overall performance. A decline could signal issues.
Worry ifCommunity Bank loan portfolio growth of at least $6 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifCommunity Bank's loans went down again. This is worse than the $6.3 million rise in Q2.
Why it matters: How the sector performs affects Midland's growth and how the market feels overall.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays steady or goes up above 15% each year.
Why it matters: A big rise in deposits shows that customers trust the bank. It also shows growth in banking relationships.
Supportive ifTotal deposits increase by more than $200 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifTotal deposits increase by less than $200 million.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth in the Community Bank shows good business plans. It also shows demand for services.
Supportive ifCommunity Bank loan growth exceeds 2% annualized in the next quarter.
Worry ifCommunity Bank loan growth is under 2% each year.
Why it matters: A fall in net interest margin may show less profit from lending.
Worry ifNet interest margin for Q3 falls below 3.98%.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin for Q3 remains at or above 3.98%.
Why it matters: A higher net income shows strong performance and growth in profits.
Supportive ifQ3 net income for common shareholders is over $17.7 million.
Worry ifQ3 net income for common shareholders is below $17.7 million.
Why it matters: More nonperforming loans may mean worse credit quality.
Worry ifNonperforming loans are over $60.9 million.
Less concerning ifNonperforming loans are below $58.8 million.
Why it matters: More nonperforming loans may mean worse credit quality. This can hurt the company's finances.
Worry ifNonperforming loans are under $65 million. This shows better credit quality.
Less concerning ifNonperforming loans are over $65 million. This shows worse credit quality.
Why it matters: A significant drop in total loans could indicate issues with loan demand or credit quality. This would impact revenue.
Worry ifTotal loans decrease less than $100 million, indicating stable loan demand.
Less concerning ifTotal loans decrease more than $100 million, suggesting weakening loan demand.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company continues its growth trend. Investors will look for strong profits to confirm positive momentum.
Supportive ifNet income for common shareholders grows by over 10% each year.
Worry ifNet income for common shareholders falls each year or grows less than 10%.