MSCI Inc. (MSCI)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$573.01-0.29%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MSCI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
MSCI — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-07
interim principal accounting officer (Global Controller) — Andrew C. Wiechmann (principal financial officer) and Kristine Johnson (Global Controller): The company appointed existing executives to interim roles due to the departure of the Global Controller and Chief Accounting Officer.
Why it matters: Managing capital spending is key for MSCI's money plan. Changes can hurt growth.
Supportive ifCapex for the year remains within the guided range of $160 to $170 million.
Worry ifCapex exceeds the guided range of $160 to $170 million.
Why it matters: The adjusted EBITDA margin shows how well the company runs. A drop could mean higher costs or less profit.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin was less than 59%.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin was more than 59%.
Why it matters: This growth rate is a key indicator of MSCI's ability to retain clients and expand its services. A drop below this level could signal weakening demand.
Worry ifRecurring subscription revenue growth for Q3 is less than 8%.
Less concerning ifRecurring subscription revenue growth for Q3 is reported at or above 8%.
Why it matters: A low tax rate can increase net income and overall profit.
Supportive ifEffective tax rate reported below 4% for Q2.
Worry ifEffective tax rate reported above 4% for Q2.
Why it matters: Increased product launches could enhance MSCI's competitive position and revenue streams. This is a focus for management.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least 5 new AI-driven products launched in 2026.
Worry ifFewer than 5 new AI-driven products launched in 2026.
Why it matters: New products drive growth. More launches indicate successful innovation and market demand.
Supportive ifMSCI launches more than 10 new products by Q4.
Worry ifMSCI launches 10 or fewer new products by Q4.
Why it matters: Growth in asset-based fees shows strong performance in funds linked to MSCI indexes.
Supportive ifAsset-based fees Run Rate increases by more than $175 million in Q2.
Worry ifAsset-based fees Run Rate increases by less than $175 million in Q2.
Why it matters: New AI-driven products could enhance MSCI's competitive edge and drive future growth.
Supportive ifNew AI products or features will be announced next quarter.
Worry ifNo announcements of new AI-driven products in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Capex levels show how MSCI is investing in growth. High capex can signal confidence in future revenue.
Watch forCapex reported above $42 million for Q2.
Also watch forCapex reported below $38 million for Q2.
Why it matters: Changes in the effective tax rate can impact net income. A stable rate supports earnings consistency.
Worry ifEffective tax rate reported between 18% and 20%.
Less concerning ifEffective tax rate reported below 15%.
Why it matters: Free cash flow guidance indicates MSCI's ability to fund growth and return capital. Strong guidance can attract investors.
Supportive ifManagement raises free cash flow guidance above $1,530 million.
Worry ifManagement lowers free cash flow guidance below $1,470 million.
Why it matters: High operating expenses can hurt profits. Keeping them under $400 million is important for margins.
Worry ifOperating costs were more than $400 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating costs were less than $400 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Capex management shows how MSCI is investing for growth. Deviations can signal financial strain.
Watch forCapex reported at $160 million or below.
Also watch forCapex is reported over $170 million.
Why it matters: Good management of spending can boost profits and help the company grow.
Watch forSpending drops by over 15% from last year.
Also watch forSpending rises by over 15% from last year.
Why it matters: Controlling expenses is key to keeping margins. Higher costs can hurt profits.
Worry ifTotal operating costs will be more than $1,535 million in 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal operating expenses are at or below $1,535 million for the year 2026.
Why it matters: The tax rate affects net income. A rate outside the guided range could signal financial issues.
Worry ifEffective tax rate reported at 18% or higher.
Less concerning ifEffective tax rate reported below 18%.
Why it matters: Doubling product launches shows MSCI's focus on innovation and growth in AI.
Supportive ifManagement reports launching twice as many products in 2026 as in 2024.
Worry ifProduct launches reported to be less than double compared to 2024.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it could signal a slowdown in the financial sector.
Worry ifRevenue growth in the financial sector falls below its median of 15%.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above its median of 15%.
Why it matters: Higher debt levels could signal financial strain. This ratio is a key measure of leverage.
Worry ifTotal debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio exceeds 3.5x.
Less concerning ifTotal debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio remains at or below 3.2x.
Why it matters: Better free cash flow shows stronger financial health and smarter spending.
Supportive ifFree cash flow increases by more than 10% year over year.
Worry ifFree cash flow decreases or remains flat year over year.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to MSCI's revenue health. A drop below 8% may signal weakening demand.
Worry ifIn Q3, organic recurring subscription growth was less than 8%.
Less concerning ifQ3 organic recurring subscription growth was at or above 8%.
Why it matters: Asset-based fees are a major revenue driver. A decline below 20% may indicate market challenges.
Worry ifAsset-based fees growth was below 20%.
Less concerning ifAsset-based fees growth reported at or above 20%.
Why it matters: More repurchases show strong capital use and trust in the business.
Supportive ifShare repurchases in Q3 exceed $150 million.
Worry ifShare repurchases in Q3 are below $150 million.
Why it matters: This report will provide insights into MSCI's financial health and growth trends.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth exceeding 10% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 10% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$87 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $261 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,807 loss on $10,000 · 18.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.