Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
MSCI Inc. (MSCI)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$655.91-2.73%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
22.48 → 22.52 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MSCI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Generate free cash flow around $1.5 billion | Free cash flow is solid, guided at $1.5 billion for 2026. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $1.4 billion in FY26 | Free cash flow: $385.4M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $1.47B to $1.53B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 20, 2026385,400,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a durable, recurring-revenue business with a premium valuation, not a turnaround story. The multi-year view is intact, though evidence on earnings quality and recent performance is mixed and confidence is medium.
MSCI is valued at a durable premium to peers, and the evidence suggests expectations are close to current results. The premium is described as justified, with low fragility, but valuation is still expensive and the model confidence is low.
In the near term, recurring revenue growth and recent earnings beats support the business, while Index revenue grew faster than total revenue in the latest quarter. Analytics revenue grew modestly, but its adjusted EBITDA declined, so delivery from innovation remains unclear. Guidance cuts and a history of missed quarters remain risks to execution.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued growth in subscriptions and asset-based fees, alongside stronger financial delivery from product innovation. Near-term sentiment could weaken if management cuts guidance or if rate cuts weigh on the Financials sector. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, MSCI’s recurring growth supports an intact long-term thesis, but its expensive valuation makes execution and guidance important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in MSCI Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 18% to 20%. |
| Intact |
| Operating margin falls below 16% in FY26 |
Operating margin: 56.29% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 18% to 20%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 20, 202656.289238 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage regulatory risks in key markets | Regulatory delays have eased some near-term risks. | Under Pressure | MSCI downgrades or reclassifies major markets reducing revenue materially | Qualitative: No material downgrade reported, but active threats in Indonesia Indonesia accuses MSCI of intimidation and races to protect emerging market status following a market rout. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain revenue growth near 11% YoY | A primary condition in MSCI Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=11% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 8% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 12.42% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=11% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 20, 202612.423843 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$22.49 → $22.52 · observed estimates
$3.82B → $3.84B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $22.49 | $3,822,280,495 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $22.47 | $3,822,190,340 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $22.47 | $3,822,190,340 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $22.47 | $3,822,190,340 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $22.47 | $3,822,640,070 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $22.47 | $3,822,195,260 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $22.47 | $3,822,640,070 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $22.48 | $3,822,195,260 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $22.48 | $3,822,195,260 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $22.50 | $3,821,661,920 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $22.50 | $3,821,661,920 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $22.50 | $3,821,661,920 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $22.48 | $3,817,958,695 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $22.48 | $3,818,977,570 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $22.48 | $3,818,977,570 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $22.48 | $3,818,977,570 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $22.48 | $3,818,977,570 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $22.47 | $3,818,977,570 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $22.47 | $3,818,977,570 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $22.47 | $3,818,977,570 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $22.47 | $3,819,252,570 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $22.48 | $3,819,252,570 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $22.48 | $3,819,252,570 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $22.48 | $3,819,252,570 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $22.46 | $3,819,252,570 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $22.48 | $3,822,016,701 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $22.48 | $3,823,258,326 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $22.49 | $3,824,820,826 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $22.48 | $3,824,445,826 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $22.48 | $3,824,445,826 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $22.48 | $3,824,445,826 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $22.50 | $3,823,945,826 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $22.49 | $3,824,210,321 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $22.46 | $3,824,167,458 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $22.46 | $3,824,167,458 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $22.46 | $3,824,167,458 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $22.43 | $3,822,167,458 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $22.43 | $3,822,167,458 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $22.39 | $3,819,979,958 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $22.38 | $3,822,987,646 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $22.48 | $3,834,673,412 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $22.48 | $3,834,673,412 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $22.48 | $3,834,673,412 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $22.48 | $3,834,673,412 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $22.48 | $3,834,673,412 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $22.48 | $3,834,673,412 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $22.51 | $3,838,754,561 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $22.52 | $3,839,556,803 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $22.52 | $3,839,556,803 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $22.52 | $3,839,899,177 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $22.52 | $3,839,899,177 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $22.52 | $3,839,899,177 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $22.52 | $3,839,899,177 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $22.52 | $3,839,899,177 | 11 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 8 recorded
1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.